river action with KK

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm worried about winning the most from 99/AK and losing the least to AA. Although after I cap pf and 3-bet the turn, I think chances are extremely slim that he has AK, so it's either 99 or AA. I'm not quite sure which one is more likely. I think that if he has 99 he's most likely not gonna raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

in a 13sb pot on the flop im WAY more likely to call 99 than AA

Barron

[ QUOTE ]
I'm worried about winning the most from 99/AK and losing the least to AA. Although after I cap pf and 3-bet the turn, I think chances are extremely slim that he has AK, so it's either 99 or AA. I'm not quite sure which one is more likely. I think that if he has 99 he's most likely not gonna raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
If this is what you believe, then I think you should go for the checkraise. Whether to checkraise or bet/3bet depends on what you think your opponent will do.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm worried about winning the most from 99/AK and losing the least to AA. Although after I cap pf and 3-bet the turn, I think chances are extremely slim that he has AK, so it's either 99 or AA. I'm not quite sure which one is more likely. I think that if he has 99 he's most likely not gonna raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
If this is what you believe, then I think you should go for the checkraise. Whether to checkraise or bet/3bet depends on what you think your opponent will do.

[/ QUOTE ]

could be one of those JAsucker c'r to save bets [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Barron

[flawless_victory]

wow, i havent played the party 30 much recently.
this looks like the most obvious river checkcall to me.
you are a big dog i think, wow. bet/threebet? jesus.

[topbrelan]

I think AA would have raised you on the flop, at least to get MP2 out...I'd say you're looking at 99 -- just do the reverse checkraise and bet right into him, planning to 3-bet

[ggbman]

He capped the turn. if you check the river he will bet. Then you c/r and call his 3 bet. If 4 bets go in on this river, you re good maybe 5% of the time. Maybe. But you want 2-3 bets ging in for sure, so it seems like an easy c/r call a 3 bet.

[steveyz]

I check-raised the river. Villian 3-bet. I called and lost to AA.

I think it was the right line given that I thought it was a toss up between 99 and AA. Preflop play would lean towards AA while flop play leans towards 99. Both hands would play the turn the same I believe.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
I check-raised the river. Villian 3-bet. I called and lost to AA.

I think it was the right line given that I thought it was a toss up between 99 and AA.

[/ QUOTE ]
that makes no sense.
you are saying you were even money to have the best hand, so u went ahead and layed 3:2? yeah, not good.

[ QUOTE ]
Both hands would play the turn the same I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]
disagree. alot of ppl would just call down after three w/ 99 and i believe that is the correct play in many instances.

*Edit*

Okay, the following does not apply to the given situation as there is some danger we are behind. We could modify the formulae below accordingly. However, I will still leave my original post unedited as I think it is important for those cases where we do think that we are ahead 100% of the time.



Only because we are fairly certain that villan will bet when we check it does not mean that a check/raise is the way to go.



Let us assume the following.
1) Villan never folds
2) If Villan plans to 3-bet a c/r, then he would also cap a 3-bet and vice versa.
3) We are ahead 100% of the time

Let's define the following terms:
P(R) = Probability that villan raises if we bet
P(B) = Probability that villan bets if we check

Because of 2), we need only look at the cases where villain is not intending to cap. In these cases, we have:

EV(Bet) = 3*P(R) + 1 - P(R) = 2*P(R) + 1
EV(Checkraise) = 2*P(B)

Thus betting is better than checkraising if the following holds

P(R) + 0.5 > P(B)

So we have to ask: Is he really 50% more likely to bet when we check than to raise when we bet?

In my opinion, given his possible hand ranges discussed, this is clearly not the case.

Thus, I bet