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  #1  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:37 PM
AlmightyJay AlmightyJay is offline
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Default Help me on the turn

Table had been fairly loose and passive. My call is marginal with only one limper to me, but I figured I'd have position and expected both blinds to play. No solid read on villian here; I only have around ten hands with him.

On the flop I've got top pair with two backdoor draws, I think this is a standard bet when checked to. But then a K drops and I get donked. What do you do here?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (3.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (2.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="blue">Hero...</font>
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  #2  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:41 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: Help me on the turn

you're getting 4.75:2 to call down. an unknown isn't bluffing often enough.

fold here, take a note that he check called a rag flop and donked a turn king and keep watching him.
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  #3  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:43 PM
stuartharris stuartharris is offline
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Default Re: Help me on the turn

This is an easy call for me. You're probably behind, and if you are, a raise won't win this for you. On the other hand, you have 14 pretty good outs. Call. The harder question for me is what to do if you don't improve and he bets out on the river. Then you're getting 5.75:1 odds. I guess you call if you think there's a 15% chance he's bluffing.
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  #4  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:45 PM
AlmightyJay AlmightyJay is offline
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Default Re: Help me on the turn

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy call for me. You're probably behind, and if you are, a raise won't win this for you. On the other hand, you have 14 pretty good outs. Call. The harder question for me is what to do if you don't improve and he bets out on the river. Then you're getting 5.75:1 odds. I guess you call if you think there's a 15% chance he's bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

14 outs? I think you need check again.. I count 5, if he has a K.
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  #5  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:46 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: Help me on the turn

he has at most 8 outs if behind the mighty 72. so basically he has 5 or less outs.
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  #6  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:46 PM
stuartharris stuartharris is offline
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Default Re: Help me on the turn

I'm an idiot. I thought that was the 2 of clubs. Fold like miles says.
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  #7  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:49 PM
AlmightyJay AlmightyJay is offline
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Default Re: Help me on the turn

[ QUOTE ]
you're getting 4.75:2 to call down. an unknown isn't bluffing often enough.

fold here, take a note that he check called a rag flop and donked a turn king and keep watching him.

[/ QUOTE ]

So against an unknown, we just immediately assume we're losing now? I see so much random bluffing with garbage at 1/2, and this seems to contradict the aggression advocated here and in SSH. I have trouble figuring out why you would raise middle pair on the flop sometimes, but fold to a nonsensical bet here.
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  #8  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:54 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: Help me on the turn

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're getting 4.75:2 to call down. an unknown isn't bluffing often enough.

fold here, take a note that he check called a rag flop and donked a turn king and keep watching him.

[/ QUOTE ]

So against an unknown, we just immediately assume we're losing now? I see so much random bluffing with garbage at 1/2, and this seems to contradict the aggression advocated here and in SSH. I have trouble figuring out why you would raise middle pair on the flop sometimes, but fold to a nonsensical bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]
pot size pot size pot size pot size pot size pot size pot size. you can afford to be wrong sometimes in big pots, because the times you're right, hey guess what? you win a big pot! this pot is pretty small compared to the times you should be raising the flop with middle pair, for instance.

so yeah, fold and watch him.
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  #9  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:56 PM
AlmightyJay AlmightyJay is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
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Default Re: Help me on the turn

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're getting 4.75:2 to call down. an unknown isn't bluffing often enough.

fold here, take a note that he check called a rag flop and donked a turn king and keep watching him.

[/ QUOTE ]

So against an unknown, we just immediately assume we're losing now? I see so much random bluffing with garbage at 1/2, and this seems to contradict the aggression advocated here and in SSH. I have trouble figuring out why you would raise middle pair on the flop sometimes, but fold to a nonsensical bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]
pot size pot size pot size pot size pot size pot size pot size. you can afford to be wrong sometimes in big pots, because the times you're right, hey guess what? you win a big pot! this pot is pretty small compared to the times you should be raising the flop with middle pair, for instance.

so yeah, fold and watch him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay. I guess I'm just jaded because of how many people I've seen at this level who love to pull moves like this with complete garbage. The other day I folded UI AKo on the river to a bet and a call only to find I folded the best hand! 1/2 is so much different than .50/1.
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  #10  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:57 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: Help me on the turn

don't be results oriented. folding instead of overcalling the river with AK-high is never a big error. basically it's going to come down to getting reads.
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