what can i beat here?

[stu-unger]

reads are that villain is an average 50nl player, so hes not very good. he is a bit loose, but i havent seen him try to make any moves. when he pushed the river i was completely lost.

50nl 6max
effecive stack ~35
dealt to hero 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in CO

pre flop- folded to hero who limps, SB completes, BB checks.

flop (1.5)-A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, hero checks.

turn (1.5)-5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, hero bet 1.25, SB folds, BB calls.

river (4)-8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB pushes for ~33, hero folds...

im not sure i like the fold, but i just couldnt come up with a hand that would push this river that i could beat. ive been thinking about it for a little while and am wondering if 2 pairs does this enough to make this +EV or if its just a standard fold.

[amoeba]

too villain dependent.

this isn't an autocall like some posts will tell you.

did he flop the nuts?

[stu-unger]

[ QUOTE ]
did he flop the nuts?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think he did, thats why i folded. i had seen him play slow with top pair hands b4 and seemed like the type of idiot that would love to trap me...

well I am bad at calculating the whole EV thing but I will tell you that at the NL50 there are a lot of weird players who will push with weird hands

he could possibly do it with a 2 pair or even be so far out of it that he thinks he just made a great slowplay of aces.

the question is would he slowplay a straight on the flop? perhaps - there is no flush draw

on the turn - if he is a real donk, there is now a flush draw and you made a bet in position after seeing lots of checks - could be semibluff and he wouldnt want you to see a cheap diamond

now - would he slowplay trips like this?
maybe he checked trying to induce bet to c/r on flop but when blank hits turn he would come out betting probably (or at least c/r)

the real question is did he hit a set of 8s? - very rarely!
only 2 possible hands could do that so I highly doubt it

personally - i would probably make the call and be convinced I had the best hand



P.S. bet bigger on turn - make it like 2, 2.5 - it'll still look like a steal

[teamdonkey]

i think Q9 or 97 is more likely than KQ. there are enough straights out there and pot odds are thin enough i probably fold this to.