Ill advised river bluff?

[sfer]

SB is a calling station and BB is unremarkable. BB coming alive on the river tells me he got there but I thought I could get a small spade to fold because my prior actions could look like I have the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Obviously I fold if reraised. I have a feeling I'm gonna get raked over the coals for this, so lemme have it.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (6.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (9.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
BB shows Qs Th (flush, ace high).
Hero shows Qd Kc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: BB wins 13.50 BB. </font>

[sthief09]

I don't like it. Anyone you're ahead of (meaning they don't have a flush) will fold, and anyone ahead of you (meaning they have a flush) will call you (I don't see anyone betting into the aggressor on every street if they aren't willing to call a raise here).

If there were 3 people to act behind you, it would make a lot more sense, because you'd just hope that BB doesn't have a spade and make everyone else fold. If the pot was bigger, it would also make a lot more sense. But neither is true, so I'd be a lot closer to folding than raising here, but I'd still call I guess.

[chesspain]

sfer,

For your bluff-raise to be +EV, you would have to win this pot approx. 20% of the time, which I think borders on fantasy. In general, checkcalling opponents in situations like this who hold a small flush card would tend to check the river but call a bet. Once he puts in his money, I'm putting him on at least the third nut flush, and given that it's Party, he's not folding a flush even if he considers the possibility that you just boated up with AA. Furthermore, I don't think that the small chance that he will bet and then call a raise with a worse hand like AT adds much value to your raise.

However, I would probably call this BB's river bet, as many players will routinely take a stab at the pot heads up when the fourth flush card hits the river. In this case, you only need to have the better hand 10% of the time for this action to be +EV.