Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Turn

insta-push

[rockythecat99]

PPPPPPUUUUUUSSSSHHHHH!!!!!!!!

[A_PLUS]

I'm pretty sure I even used a '7' as my example card where the BB would bet into us on the turn....Damn, I am..very lucky [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[A_PLUS]

Its a push. We need to get the 1p+draw money now, a lot less likely that a hand we beat will bet the river.

Great job Lloyd, this concept was enough to bring me back to the MTT board, well done.

[bdohaney]

I disagree greatly with most of the panel on this hand. I think this is a case of one of two situations. Either the hero is way ahead, or he is way behind. There are several possible hands that the villainn could have that we would ave soundly beat, AJ, possibly KJ, AT, AQ, JdTd and unlikely KQ JT or QQ. Now, just as likely (if not MORE likely), the villain could be holding AA, KK, JJ, AK, AKs (diamonds would be bad) and an unlikely QT. With how things have played out so far, it is VERY likely that the villain has the better hand here. Another question would be what hands could our villain be putting the hero on here? I would think that he would put our range at something similar. So, unless he is a real donk, I seriously doubt he would be betting 800 on this turn. That bet just asks for the hero to push (as many of you have decided to do). If the villain is holding AA, hero is drawing dead. Against KK, hero has 2 outs; JJ - 4, AKs chop or the villain has 9 outs to draw the nut flush, and the unlikely QT where the hero also has 4 outs. With the reraise on the flop, I don't see the villain (if he is an even reasonably good player) continuing to play any of the hands that the hero can beat. I think that this is clearly a fold situation. Barring further information, I am going to assume that the villain is a good player. I think that it is close, but I am going to give the villain credit for having a strong hand here and let it go. If the villain is a bad enough player to be continuing to play a marginal hand that far against that kind of betting, that I will be able to get my chips back on later hands.

[kuro]

You push. The decision to push this was really made on the flop when you called the min-raise hoping to induce a bluff. If villain has a draw he calls your push given the pot odds. If you just call and his draw misses the river, he's probably not bluffing into you and likely folding to your value bet.

If villain has you beat, then there's really not much you could do because you had too strong of a hand to lay and he value bet you well.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree greatly with most of the panel on this hand. I think this is a case of one of two situations. Either the hero is way ahead, or he is way behind. There are several possible hands that the villainn could have that we would ave soundly beat, AJ, possibly KJ, AT, AQ, JdTd and unlikely KQ JT or QQ. Now, just as likely (if not MORE likely), the villain could be holding AA, KK, JJ, AK, AKs (diamonds would be bad) and an unlikely QT. With how things have played out so far, it is VERY likely that the villain has the better hand here. Another question would be what hands could our villain be putting the hero on here? I would think that he would put our range at something similar. So, unless he is a real donk, I seriously doubt he would be betting 800 on this turn. That bet just asks for the hero to push (as many of you have decided to do). If the villain is holding AA, hero is drawing dead. Against KK, hero has 2 outs; JJ - 4, AKs chop or the villain has 9 outs to draw the nut flush, and the unlikely QT where the hero also has 4 outs. With the reraise on the flop, I don't see the villain (if he is an even reasonably good player) continuing to play any of the hands that the hero can beat. I think that this is clearly a fold situation. Barring further information, I am going to assume that the villain is a good player. I think that it is close, but I am going to give the villain credit for having a strong hand here and let it go. If the villain is a bad enough player to be continuing to play a marginal hand that far against that kind of betting, that I will be able to get my chips back on later hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Journal 10/14/05...

"and lastly, if I ever find myself at a final table with a guy who looks like a giant Gavin Griffin, fire the 2nd barrell 100% of the time."

[rwanger]

I'm starting to think along the same lines as bdoheny...I'm getting worried that we're behind. I believe a two pair hand (or even a set) would make a larger bet into this board, since, from his perspective, we could easily have top pair with a gutshot, in which case, he should think we have something like 9 outs against his KJ, and he'd be giving us pretty close odds to call.

I'm also no longer considering that villian has a 1 pair hand. If his check raise was to find out where he is at, there is no way he bets half the pot on the turn thinking his hand is still good after we called his checkraise.

If I had flopped the straight, I might play it exactly like the villian has (although, I would probably lead the flop). He's slowly getting all of his chips in, but his bets are small enough that it's going to be very hard for us to get off of even a TPTK hand (AQ in this case).

I'm 100% sure that he puts us all in on the river, so we are playing for the rest of our stack here.

It is REALLY starting to look like QT to me, but that being said, folding would be an AMAZINGLY DICIPLINED laydown. I don't think I could make it. Obviously, a read on villian would be extremely useful here.

If we fold, we'll have 18x left, which is not ideal obviously, but not significantly different than the 26x we started with. Of course, doubling up to 52x would be great. I might almost consider the texture of the table here. Are we getting respect for our raises? If we can successfully steal blinds, and aggressively take down small pots, I wouldn't mind folding as much. However, if people are mixing it up with us and most pots are contested, then it seems like we might not get a better spot to collect a ton of chips before moving into push or fold territory.

In real life, I probably push.
If I had 10 minutes at the table to think about it, I might be able to find a fold.

[junkmail3]

I have the same range as before. And I think we're happy getting all of our chips in. You could raise, and let the BB find a way to fold if he's way behind. But this bet, also small is pretty scary. But I think we've committed to this hand, so why not just call, and when the action gets to you on the river, make sure the slider is all the way to the right before you hit raise/call.

Villian, if way behind could fold to any raise, even a minraise. So, let's just let him lead the river again.

The only concern is if a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (very low concern), Q or T hits the river. I wonder if it could change the hand enough to make me fold. Would villian fold Qx, Tx with a pair right now anyway though?

I'm talking about villian being way behind like 32o where he would fold now but could bluff it again on the river. Who says he knows what folding equity is?

(Also, this is just an alternative to the easy answer ... which is push it - but that's too easy. If villian has 32o and is bluffing there is a 100% chance he folds this when we push the turn. There is a 98.9% chance he check/folds the river. But that .1% of the time he pushes into us, not knowing what the hell he's doing, then we've gained some chips.)

In summary, I think there is a slightly better chance to get all of his chips on the river, than on the turn. But it is very small. If he has 99 and catches a set, but would have folded on the turn then we're in trouble.

I really don't know if this makes sense, but with everyone saying push (which I read after I wrote this), I would start to think that Giga called.

My range of hands is the same I gave on the turn. I push and definitely expect a call unless he's on a pure bluff like 77,88,99.

I tend not to think much when villain bets turn after raising flop--especially on a blank.

Remember that, after we push, the pot will have ~4.2k in it, and villain will have to call ~1k. Unless he's got a backdoor flush draw (K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is the only one that makes sense to me), villain won't have correct odds to call. If he folds, we're happy to take down this large pot, and if he calls, he's made a big mistake and we've got huge equity.

Of course, if he has us beat, we're in trouble, but we're much too strong to fold, and the river's gonna be an A anyway [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].