Minraised on my semi-bluff steal

#1 10-28-2005, 08:45 AM

I have been at the table for about 30 hands and it has been playing very loose (~40% VP$IP) and passive (which explains the inevitable question of why am I playing A6s)

No specific read on the villain.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($60.25)
SB ($27.70)
BB ($71.75)
UTG ($47.50)
UTG+1 ($18.50)
UTG+2 ($66.20)
MP1 ($8.05)
MP2 ($18)
MP3 ($11.25)
Hero ($40.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1.25, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.25, Button calls $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($5.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $3, Button raises to $6, BB folds, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero ???

So I got minraised on my semi-bluff steal. Does he have a hand? Is my 4.5:1 odds good enough to find out?

yvesaint · #2 10-28-2005, 08:51 AM

fold, but i also usually check-fold that flop. it will hit too many people, plus your bet is weak.

#3 10-28-2005, 08:56 AM

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fold, but i also usually check-fold that flop. it will hit too many people, plus your bet is weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was hoping to represent AK. Maybe not so much, huh? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Escotme · #4 10-28-2005, 09:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold, but i also usually check-fold that flop. it will hit too many people, plus your bet is weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was hoping to represent AK. Maybe not so much, huh? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think your 3(!) opponents would put you on AK when you smooth call a 2,5x EP raiser, letting so many people into the pot??

If you're representing TP, which is more likely how your opponents perceive your bet, your bet should be PS to deter draws - Yvesaint is right. BB's c/r says he beats TP and wants to build the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
So I got minraised on my semi-bluff steal. Does he have a hand? Is my 4.5:1 odds good enough to find out?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all - it's a complete bluff steal attempt.

Secondly, you have 4 outs (Hitting the ace will not be good enough here.) giving you 11:1 odds. Not even close.

Thirdly - and most importantly - you could hit your outs and still be 2nd best or only chop it!

So I put the question back to you: What do you think you should do?

pho75 · #5 10-28-2005, 10:01 AM

To begin with, that has to be one of the worst flops to bluff at. All paint, all connected, all bad. Next, there are WAY too many people in the hand. Try that play against a single opponent, maybe two, NEVER three. Also, you should have position on your targets. Last and not least, you practically just sat down. You know almost nothing about the four people you are trying to bluff. For all you know they might be the greatest calling stations on earth. I know you said the table seems loose and passive, but 30 hands is not that many.

Be that as it may, you tried to bluff at it anyway so now what? You said that you thought this was a semi-bluff so you should have other ways to win if(or in this situation, when) you get called. It's only a semi-bluff if you think your outs are good. Your four kings are certainly good. However, there is a very good chance that you are going to split the pot if it hits. Are your three aces good? I don't see how you could count them all. If your ace comes you could lose to the nut str8, you could be out kicked, or you could loose to two pair. Out of your three aces, I would discount them and call it one out. Out of the four kings, given that you will split some of the time, I would also discount them and call it three outs. So I would say that that you are semi-bluffing with four outs and no chance that you are ahead right now. Given that board and the number of people in the hand, it's almost a pure bluff.

So you ran your bluff and what happend? You didn't get called, you got raised! It's over. Even though the pot is laying you 4.5-1 odds, you don't have the outs to make the call. Four outs is like 8% which is about 12-1. Hell, even undiscounted, seven outs still isn't enough to make the call. Remember you are only going to be able to see one card before you have to make another decision (out of position).

You have to fold.

Your aggression is good. You timing is bad. Selective aggression is the key.

#6 10-28-2005, 10:04 AM

Well, I should have folded. Or never been in the pot in the first place which is the RIGHT answer.

Only I didnt fold. I called. Which was loudly referred to as a donk play by the table.

pho75 · #7 10-28-2005, 10:05 AM

I said the same thing using five times the words. I totaly agree.

Hattifnatt · #8 10-28-2005, 10:06 AM

No good idea on this texture. If the flop was K83 or something like that it should have been a different story.

Just check and fold here.

#9 10-28-2005, 10:06 AM

Great assessment. Thank you very much. Moral of the story: pick my spots better.