Help! Closing down leaks. (longish)

[jedi]

I've been running pretty break even/down over the last month or so, and I'm trying to identify some leaks of mine, and what to do about it. If these are obvious to you, then chime in and help save my bankroll.

1. Playing missed overcards. I religiously raise with AK and AQ, and usually KQ and AJ when the circumstances allow. I even fire off a continuation bet when I feel the flop has missed my opponents. Sometimes I'm even right, but they call me down anyways, catch a Jack on the river and proudly show off their QJ because "I knew you were bluffing." I have 2 questions about this:

a) Am I bloating the pot too much pre-flop so that it becomes correct to call with just 2 overcards?

b) Am I just not making the correct reads at the table any more? I figure that I need to know 1: Will they call with just overcards into a raised pot and a pre-flop raiser. 2: What is their image of me, trying to bully with just AK? 3: Will they fold to a turn follow-up bet? 4: How far will they go with an unimproved middle pair?

Are these all questions that I need to be asking of my opponents? Are there any more that I can think of? I think this is the biggest problem in my game, as it's a common situation that I see. Improving this part of my game can help me greatly.

2. Getting raised or check-raised, especially on the turn. Usually, when I'm in a hand with AA or another premium type hand, I hit the brakes when I get raised. When I get check-raised on the turn, it's especially bothersome as I'm going to call down 2 more Big Bets to see a showdown. This is all in limit poker, and making big laydowns in large pots (which this is because I'm raising pre-flop) is NOT the way to win money. Should I just toss my bets in and expect to see a set beat me? Some times I'm up against 2 pair in which case I have hidden outs here. Reads here help. If I'm up against someone that's passive and always waits for the turn to raise the flopped monster, can I fold here with confidence? Calling down makes me feel like a calling station, the type of players I don't want to become, but folding here just seems wrong too.

It's easy to lay this down with just AK, no pair, no draw. But when I have a legit hand like TPTK, it's tough to lay this down. I'm not sure I should be laying it down either (on un-scary boards), but I don't like just bending over and taking it either.

That's just 2 for now. I'm sure I'll have more in my head after the evening session.

That fact that you are asking these questions leads me to believe that your bankroll is not in jeopardy just yet.

1) I would say you might be out-thinking yourself. So many limit players don't have the mental apptitude to remember that you raised preflop (to them it was just the cost of seeing the flop).

I would say more times than not... if you have an over pair to a J or Q high board... you need to call down or three bet the turn. If someone shows you a set or two goofy pair.... so be it.

So many times I have cllled down with KK AA, or QQ only to find that the uber-aggressive player was jamming it with top pair A kicker.

2) I have given up with the continuation bet after the flop with speculative hands like AK, AQ or a middle pair that I raised with in mid - late posistion. I just try to take my free card and see what develops.

I have found in the mid-limit on-line games, checking the flop (small bet time) and betting or raiseing the turn (big bet time) seems to win me more pots when i have minimal holdings.

[Vincent Lepore]

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I've been running pretty break even/down over the last month or so

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How long were you running good (winning)? Are you sure that you are a winning player or were before the past month or so?

If the answer to this qusetion is yes then do not change anything just yet. The first thing you do is play one game at a time. Check your game. Make sure you are not beating yourself. If opponents are calling your AK and with QJ and getting there on the river that is not a problem. That is just "variance". If you were playing against good opponent you would win these type of hands a lot more on the turn with a lot less variance but infact it would cost you money. Let them call. Against these types of players you may want to consider betting for value on the river with AK. If they will call the turn with nothing they will call the with weak King and Ace high. If you worry about getting check raised on the turn try checking behing=d and calling down on the river with your AK. Of course only do these minor adjustments if you are sure your game is in order and you are still getting beat up.

Vince

[jedi]

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I've been running pretty break even/down over the last month or so

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How long were you running good (winning)? Are you sure that you are a winning player or were before the past month or so?

If the answer to this qusetion is yes then do not change anything just yet. The first thing you do is play one game at a time. Check your game. Make sure you are not beating yourself. If opponents are calling your AK and with QJ and getting there on the river that is not a problem. That is just "variance". If you were playing against good opponent you would win these type of hands a lot more on the turn with a lot less variance but infact it would cost you money. Let them call. Against these types of players you may want to consider betting for value on the river with AK. If they will call the turn with nothing they will call the with weak King and Ace high. If you worry about getting check raised on the turn try checking behing=d and calling down on the river with your AK. Of course only do these minor adjustments if you are sure your game is in order and you are still getting beat up.

Vince

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Thanks. Yes, I've been a winning player. I have records back from October 2003 which show a fairly steady win rate, though the sample size isn't as big as others since I'm not a full time "pro" at this.

I think it's just the way I've been losing that's making me question myself. As I said earlier, it's that I'm not sure what the turn check-raise means. Does it mean someone with AQ trying to push me off of my "obvious AK" when Qxx flops and he waits for the turn to raise me? Or does it mean someone who flopped or turned 2 pair or better extracting value?

What about worrying about giving someone a free card, even if I only have A high? I sometimes would check the turn, intending to either bet or call a bet on the river with the AK high like you said, but sometimes the river made that A9 hand 1 pair. I'd hate that when I believe he would have folded on the turn. The pot is already big enough since I bloated it up pre-flop that I should want to win it right away, right? Of course at the same time, I do have to learn to check it down against multiple opponents, even on a raggish board.

I should just chalk it up to variance, but I wanted to make sure there weren't any leaks in either my game or my thinking. Probably more to come.

[Lash]

Hey jedi,

I bet some pro’s would not even call your 2 leaks listed leaks… but rather just gray areas of poker that will always be gray. They are some of the most situational and opponent dependent decisions you can have to make in poker, and they come up all too frequently. In turn, they require extremely focused judgment to first of all - understand what is involved in those decisions, and then actually apply your understanding in a meaningful way.

I’ll admit that maybe I’m making them out to be a little tougher than they actually are, but that’s simply because I recognize them as flaws / areas to develop in my game as well. For what it’s worth, I’ll give you my comments on the two leaks you listed. Just keep in mind that these are flaws in my game as well, and that I decided to put them on the back burner. I feel the need to focus more on basic fundamentals while I try to rebuild my game. I also feel that if I ever get a high level of comfort / understanding of your two “leaks” that I will be a world-class player.

1-Missed Over-cards

I recommend reading Ciaffone and Brier’s “Middle Limit Holdem” chapter on overcards. It may be conservative advice… especially if you are playing 6-max, but it helped me develop basic guidelines for these situations.

I am in the process of breaking everything in my game down to flop concepts / strategy. It’s only natural then, that I would recommend looking at your actions on the flop with overcards. Develop a base line strategy of sorts for these situations, and then slowly add more variables to your decision making process...On the flop only. Then when you understand the motive behind your flop actions in these spots you can start expanding to turn and river play.

I don’t think “bloating of the pot” pre-flop should be something you should concern yourself with. The heart of what makes AK tough to play when you miss is board texture, number of opponents, and their tendencies.

2-Facing aggression on the turn

I struggle with this even more than the missed overcard situations. I tend to call down too much and at times play back when it’s not warranted. These are expensive mistakes to be making, but once again I think the root of the problem, at least for me is my flop play… When I look at turn mistakes I find myself making, I tend to wonder how I got in that spot in the first place… What was my plan looking forward from the flop on? If my motive / actions on the flop were sound, then it’s likely my turn and river decisions will be a little easier to analyze.

For what it’s worth - I think that when players consider making a laydown on-line they tend to forget two important factors….
1-Pot size
The smaller the pot, the more readily you can make a laydown, or at the least go on the defensive. If your opponent may be bluffing / semi-bluffing, it’s o.k. to let go sometimes when the pot is small…You in turn avoid opening up in situations where the potential return for being right is small.

2-How protected is the pot
The more people involved… the more likely the aggressor has what he is representing.

Hope the above helps

[Vincent Lepore]

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I sometimes would check the turn, intending to either bet or call a bet on the river with the AK high like you said, but sometimes the river made that A9 hand 1 pair. I'd hate that when I believe he would have folded on the turn.

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You are not alone. Giving a free card and then getting burned on the river by a 2 or three outer, well quite franky sucks. But it is a psychological problem more than a factual problem. What usually (much more likely) happens is that you induce a bluff from those that miss their hands.
Think about a situation where you have AK and your opponent has A9. You are both on the turn and there are 4 rags on board. If you bet do you want your opponent to fold? If the pot is laying him correct odds or better then you may want him to fold but if the pot is small which is mostly the case when you are heads up then you want him to call. So giving a free card in the same stituations may not be a mistake, especially if your opponent tends to bluff the river. From my experience this appears to be the case for almost all online players. The concept that if you believe that you are ahead you should bet still should be adherd too in most case. That is that if you have good reason to believe that your AK is best then you should bet and call a check raise. But if you are unsure or if the pot warrants it then checking and calling the river is a good play online. If you still have problems after a significant number of hours you must either move down in limits or keep meticulous records and discuss your strategy with those you respect. Try and be specific as you can. I know that this is a problem because poker is situational and it is hard to describe exactly what you do in any given situation but it is important and you want to at least give a good account of your style to determine if something is wrong.

Oh one other thing. Frustration, as all vetran players know, is a killer. Sometimes just plain old probability is at work and there is nothing you can do about it. Just try not to tilt. By the way I preach "don't tilt" better than I apply it.

Vince

I feel I'm running bad... I fier up PokerTracker or some such software and start a new 5,000 to 10,000 hand session.

You can do this by opening a new spreadsheet within your spreadsheet.

Run the figures and look at your hand history after this 5K -10K sampling... see if your up or down.

[Vincent Lepore]

I believe this is a good idea. PT is an advantage B$M players don't have. Use it to your adavantage. One of those advantages is to analyze your own game.

Vince

[jedi]

3. MTTs. I seem to do pretty well in SnGs, but can't figure out why the hell I can't do so well in MTTs. They're both tournaments, right? I think it's because when blinds go up in SnGs, I know how to gamble it up when needed. The table doesn't change, and when the blinds go up, EVERYONE at the table gets relatively short stacked, not just me.

Compare this to MTTs where when the blinds go up, I'm short stacked, and everyone else has kept up with accumulating chips. As a result, when I'm in gambling mode (Orange/Red zone), my opponents all have bigger stacks and are willing to call my all-ins more easily. I think I need to be more patient here, and just allow people to bust out (and spend more time in the MTT forums).

Thoughts?

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I recommend reading Ciaffone and Brier’s “Middle Limit Holdem” chapter on overcards.

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This is an excellent read for this topic. I think that Lash has some good advice for you.