Marginal overpair: call down or no?

#1 09-20-2005, 05:10 PM

This is my first post, so let me know if I need to change formatting or whatever.

Should I call this down?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (23 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (15.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, Hero ?

gharp · #2 09-20-2005, 05:19 PM

Raise now. I think you should have called the flop and waited until the turn to raise in the first place, but I might get flamed for that.

I hope you're not folding...

@bsolute_luck · #3 09-20-2005, 05:21 PM

fire again. big pot, he could be donkbetting A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

@bsolute_luck · #4 09-20-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise now. I think you should have called the flop and waited until the turn to raise in the first place, but I might get flamed for that.

I hope you're not folding...

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you wait? i think waiting is on a more draw heavy board, but this thing is pretty much a blank.

#5 09-20-2005, 05:30 PM

FWIW I would raise the turn, the pot is big and you have a chance of being ahead of the PFR if he has a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or something like that. If you shut everyone else out that is fantasitic and against a passive opponent you likely take a free showdown even if he has a big overpair.

That being said, Shillx made some good posts (link below) a little while ago (as did istewart and Paxasmotic in a different thread) about how waiting for the turn to raise may not be great against a PFR. If the turn didn't give a flush draw here, I might be tempted to take a more passive line, but here I still think you raise.

Link to Shillx thread

#6 09-20-2005, 05:33 PM

I think with 1010 waiting till the turn is good b/c your equity goes way/up down on the turn, plus you can protect your hand b/c you have great relative position to the aggressor.

Aaron W. · #7 09-20-2005, 05:52 PM

I don't 3-bet this preflop with 6 other players in the pot. You can make an argument for pot-building for when you flop a set, but you make it very very difficult to win a pot UI by bloating it so much. I would rather call with the intent of raising a bunch of flops and trying to narrow the field postflop by making everyone face two bets cold in a smaller pot.

But I don't hate the 3-bet. You're exchanging a preflop equity edge for a postflop playing edge by 3-betting.

#8 09-20-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fire again. big pot, he could be donkbetting A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

For SB to lead out into a slew of opponents (who hung around to cap preflop) with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on this ragged flop doesn't seem likely to me. The fact that he didn't 3-bet your flop raise may mean he's got an overpair, but fears you're on AA or KK

gharp · #9 09-20-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]

why would you wait? i think waiting is on a more draw heavy board, but this thing is pretty much a blank.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well raising offers > 13:1 which protects us from nothing, really. If we wait, I think we can offer ~ 8:1 which is better, though not much.

There's the whole improved equity thing too (two overpairs section in SSH, blah, blah), though I'm not sure that applies here. There was a post from shillx recently where he makes some good points about your hand in relation to the preflop cappers range (I think that might be the one tehox just linked to). I'm thinking just in terms of protecting your hand.

#10 09-20-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There's the whole improved equity thing too (two overpairs section in SSH, blah, blah), though I'm not sure that applies here. There was a post from shillx recently where he makes some good points about your hand in relation to the preflop cappers range (I think that might be the one tehox just linked to). I'm thinking just in terms of protecting your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah Shillx's point is that when the PF capper leads the turn again, we are likely toast. So protecting our hand is kind of pointless, we want to see a showdown cheaply and have everyone else pad the pot for the times our hand is good. Same goes for pot equity considerations, as our pot equity doesn't really change if we are behind the PF capper like 75% of the time or whatever.