raised 99 with Ace on flop against pfreraiser

[Shillx]

Classic game theory situation. The problem is that the best play is probably some mixed strategy that would be very complex and player dependent. We generally assume that the WA/WB line is the best non-mixed strategy, but it has its share of assumptions (the villian is over aggressive for one).

Betting out on an A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flop is okay with 99, but you have to come up with a global plan to combat counter strategies. As his effective odds get better, you have to start check/folding your weakest holdings. So if you are offering him 7:3 to calldown from the flop, you would want bet hands that are perhaps a 75:25 favorite against his range. You can't bet hands that have 70% equity since you have to start throwing the weaker ones away on later steets, and that makes it more correct for him to calldown. So assume that you would play the following hands in this way....

AJ, KQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], KJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], red/black 99

He is getting 12:5 to calldown, so we need put his equity at about ~13-14:5 or so when he holds KK-TT. Assume that he always raises Ax and AA on the flop, so we don't need to count that into the equity calculations. In order to prevent him from calling the flop and folding the turn with hands like QQ, we have to keep pressing the flush draws. This way he either has to fold to our semibluff or payoff our AJ. We can give up with one of the nine combos if he calls on the flop. Notice that we can't bet-check/fold all or even most bad hands since things like KQ and JJ will eat us for lunch. If he calls, we bet the following on the turn

AJ, KQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], KJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], black 99

Now he is getting 13:4 to calldown, and we have his ranged narrowed down to KK-TT. It makes no difference if he decides to calldown or fold at this point. On the river he will be getting 7.5:1 to call, so this part is easy. We bet the AJ and the busted flush draw and check/fold the remaining 99. It will be 6:1 that we aren't bluffing, but that is the best we can do.

So this could be one way to play this type of hand if you decide to fire with 99. Obviously it gets more complicated if he can smooth-call with Ax, but this is a place to start if you like the flop lead idea.

Changed AK to AJ.

[Eeegah]

That would be awfully hard to figure out in twenty-five seconds [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]