A6s and middle pair, raggedy board

#1 11-12-2005, 05:04 PM

SB is 13/7
BB is 88/4
CO is 9/3/1.6

This is CO's second pfr in 40 hands.

My thinking here is that if I get raised by CO, we are protectecting our hand from some draws, and might be able to reverse dominate CO, and we just might have the best hand here. Is this crazy?

PokerRoom 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) PokerRoom Converter at BonusHunting.net

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 checks, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets...

rafct · #2 11-12-2005, 05:18 PM

Because the CO is so tight preflop I think you will be behind more often; also I think is hard to make it heads up with him with this bet hoping for him to raise. I think i would have just checked and called 1 bet hoping to improve in the turn.

#3 11-12-2005, 05:20 PM

You have a maximum of 5 outs. 2 of them are not clean. So I think there is no way to check/call. Even with callers in front of you I would either bet out or check/fold.

rafct · #4 11-12-2005, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have a maximum of 5 outs. 2 of them are not clean. So I think there is no way to check/call. Even with callers in front of you I would either bet out or check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ] I think the check call can be done but not always; it needs something to give us odds for instance when he bets and all call.

#5 11-12-2005, 05:29 PM

Then the probability that at least one of them is on a flush draw increases a lot and that reduces your outs. And you can't draw at three outs in this pot, I think, with a very tight preflop raiser. Even if all call you only get 8.5:1 and even with implied odds a call to 3-4 outs is -EV imo.

Vote4Pedro · #6 11-12-2005, 05:31 PM

If youre planning on calling, you might as well bet out on the flop and hope to get better hands to fold(ie J9 or something)

#7 11-12-2005, 06:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If youre planning on calling, you might as well bet out

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't plan on calling though.

robertsonjohn · #8 11-12-2005, 06:14 PM

I think this is very read-dependent. If you think the CO is the type to raise overs AND check the turn unimproved for the free card, then this is a good play. Otherwise, I'd probably check fold the flop.

I don't know if you can have that sort of read on him after only 40 hands (although his aggression rating suggests that it is), but I do know that 40 hands isn't enough to judge his PF raise standards to be so strict that you're only reverse dominating AK. I have a PF raise percentage of around 9% and it's not uncommon for me to go 40 hands without ANY PF raises when I'm running cold. If his range is AA-JJ, AK & AQ, you are a slight favorite to be ahead - if you take out the AQ, he is a slightly better favorite, so your advantage is going to come from how easy he is to read.

#9 11-12-2005, 05:18 PM

*grunch*

you do not really want to find a A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn, so you are protecting very few outs, actually. Probably no more than 3 or 3.5. When CO really raises so few hands, you are only ahead of AK at the moment. Check/call is not an option with these few outs. So I agree with the bet, hope he raises. If there is a reraise I would get away from the hand immediately.
I wouldn't do the same trick on the turn though but check/fold UI. Especially when you have cold-callers. You might be reverse dominated yourself if you hit an A then.

Felipe · #10 11-12-2005, 08:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*

you do not really want to find a A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn, so you are protecting very few outs, actually. Probably no more than 3 or 3.5. When CO really raises so few hands, you are only ahead of AK at the moment. Check/call is not an option with these few outs. So I agree with the bet, hope he raises. If there is a reraise I would get away from the hand immediately.
I wouldn't do the same trick on the turn though but check/fold UI. Especially when you have cold-callers. You might be reverse dominated yourself if you hit an A then.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't protect outs. You buy outs, or you protect your hand by inducing people to fold incorrectly or call incorrectly.

Ck/calling is good here. What will betting do? You can't hope to fold people at these stakes. You bet into a preflop raiser? why? so he can get heads up with your measly pair of 6's?????? that's nuts. All he needs is pocket eights and you're done! you can't bet here. Even if he has KQclubs, he can raise and get everybody to cold call. Now you are paying 2 bets to see the turn instead of one. And the pot has gotten very big, and you don't have a strong hand. I'm not convinced that betting is good here.

If there is a re-raise i'd get out immediately
You have to check your pot odds here. Folding incorrectly costs you money. Those 2 sm-bets that you put in by raising no longer belong to you (or belong to the "hero") they belong to the pot, and you have to re-calculate your pot odds here.

If i hit an ace, i'm betting it hard. "i could be reverse dominated". is weak-tight thinking.

When CO really raises so few hands, you are only ahead of AK at the moment.

AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,99,88, AJs, AQs, KQs, ATs are all hands that he could raise with. That's only 11/169 possible hands. we are ahead of 4/11 of his raising with our pair of 6's.

c/c is good here.