Top two from flop facing allin on the turn

FlyingStart · #1 11-07-2005, 09:22 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP3 ($79)
Hero ($203.15)
Button ($286.20)
SB ($188.60)
BB ($69.20)
UTG ($193.30)
UTG+1 ($60.15)
MP1 ($191.80)
MP2 ($448.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises to $8, Button calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $16, Button calls $16.

Turn: ($51) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $50, Button raises to $262.2, Hero calls $129.15 (All-In).

River: ($492.35) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $492.35

I didn't have much of a read on villain, his PT stats was something like 26%/6%, but I hadn't played that many hands with him.

Good call?

FlyingStart · #2 11-07-2005, 12:46 PM

Hmm, anyone?

If I held AA here I fold but since I myself hold one 8 and one 9 there is only two combinations of sets 88s or 99s. A set of deuces I figured was pretty unlikely to call the preflop raise and then only call the flop. So on the flop i was convinced I had the best hand. On the turn the only thing I worried much about was a set of tens, but even that wasn't that likely given the action. Amongst drawing hands the only one I could see beat me was QJ of clubs..

Amongst hands that I beat I could see a slowplayed high pair now fearing straights and flushes (I know this is kinda stupid since it really looks like I too have a high pair AA/KK). Or maybe a massive draw figuring he has some FE against what he suspects i a big pair.

djoyce003 · #3 11-07-2005, 12:51 PM

i'd be kind of worried....he's fairly tight. He only called your raise....i'm thinking he would have reraised with a big pocket pair, but he might have just called with TT-QQ. It's also likely he could have called with pockets...i'd call this raise all day long on the button with 22...although i'd have raised on the flop with it. I really only see you beating JJ or QQ here as I don't think he has AA or KK. I can also see him having 89, T9, and some kind of draw here. Tough spot. Given the size of the pot I think I probably call here but I don't like it. I think he has hands you beat and draws often enough to make it marginal...not sure it's highly negative or highly positive EV.

FlyingStart · #4 11-07-2005, 02:36 PM

Villain flipped over 88 for the set. I think perhaps the call was a little -EV without a read that says he can push massive draws because people really doesn't do that too often. (atleast not at the 100$s, my experience at 200$s is more limited)

djoyce003 · #5 11-07-2005, 03:13 PM

you are right....they don't typically push with draws but it does happen and i'm more inclined to think about it on hands that have straight AND flush possibilities....however my read was pretty much right, he had a pocket pair, which is what it really looked like from the action.

#6 11-07-2005, 04:24 PM

Honestly, this is an istafold in my book. You have a tight villain going all in on that board, yeah....it's a fold. I bet more times than not he has a straight, and at the very least he has a set. Maybe, just maybe, 1 in 20 times he has a better two pair. But I don't think you are ever ahead. You might call if you had a set, but I think you have to have at least a set to even consider calling this.

Also, you flopped top two, but you don't even have top two anymore after the turn. I need to have a real good read to consider putting my whole stack at risk with middle two pair on this board and getting raised all-in.

Instafold.

#7 11-07-2005, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, anyone?

If I held AA here I fold but since I myself hold one 8 and one 9 there is only two combinations of sets 88s or 99s. A set of deuces I figured was pretty unlikely to call the preflop raise and then only call the flop. So on the flop i was convinced I had the best hand. On the turn the only thing I worried much about was a set of tens, but even that wasn't that likely given the action. Amongst drawing hands the only one I could see beat me was QJ of clubs..

Amongst hands that I beat I could see a slowplayed high pair now fearing straights and flushes (I know this is kinda stupid since it really looks like I too have a high pair AA/KK). Or maybe a massive draw figuring he has some FE against what he suspects i a big pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're getting too caught up in what hands you think he might have, rather than looking at what his bet tells you he has. When a tight villain like this goes all-in on that board, he normally has a straight or at least a set. Daniel Negraneau had a real good article on this in Cardplayer a couple weeks ago. He talked about conditional probability. Basically he said that you have to look at not just the possible hands your opponent could have but what hands they could have in that situation that they play that way. In other words, under those conditions what would your opponent play that way? In your hand, do you think a tight opponent is pushing on that board with anything that you beat? I can't think of one hand that he would do that with that you beat. So I wouldn't get too caught up in guessing what he might or not might have here. The fact is that under those conditions and circomstances, you are beat the vast majority of time--I would guess over 90% of the time.

#8 11-07-2005, 04:51 PM

im folding here all day long. you are beat for sure.

what are the two hands he could possibly be beating you with? an overpair is almost not certain because hes not letting you see the turn for free unless hes on a drawing hand or a hand like 10-10, in which case you're completely screwed. or if he had a hand like Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and he had overs, flush draw and a gutshot.

you could have taken this hand on the flop if you wanted to but you lost control of it and are now far behind. fold and move on.

FlyingStart · #9 11-07-2005, 05:21 PM

Yeah.. I guess you are right. I think I was just too certain I had the best hand on the flop, got confused, and "just had to call". Really bad

Do you really think villain is that tight? 26VPIP, that's far more than me atleast

#10 11-07-2005, 05:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah.. I guess you are right. I think I was just too certain I had the best hand on the flop, got confused, and "just had to call". Really bad

Do you really think villain is that tight? 26VPIP, that's far more than me atleast

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't even know what 26VPIP means. Someone else said he was tight so I was going with it... It doesn't matter though. The guy would have to be a total maniac for me to consider calling.