Chart - EV of Calling on the River... (is folding as bad as we think?)

[MarkD]

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Some people don't understand this. Most good players do. Folding the river for 1 bet is not a big mistake because it costs you the pot. Ed Miller, I believe, was simplifying a rule for the unwashed masses. Those of us that aspire to greater heights have to leave behind the comfortable (but -EV) river calls.

Krishan

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I always knew that what Ed said was an over simplification and understood that folding wasn't as big of a mistake as it was made out to be but until I saw this chart I didn't realize how close the mistakes of folding and calling really are. I didn't know they were of bsimilar magnitude. I was under the impression that folding was much less of a mistake than calling if you were off by the same percentage in either direction around the break even point. I had never done the calculation (I am not sure why - I guess I just blindly believed Sklansky and Miller on this and never explored it myself).

That's why this chart was such an eye opener for me.

Now I wonder why we still always talk about how we should call "because the pot is big" in this forum. I see it all the time, and I often say to myself "ayup, that's good reasoning".

I expect my fold river % to go up in future sessions. I also expect my EV to go up as a result since I will be listening to my reads more. If my reads are wrong, so be it, at least I will be using them.