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#41
08-14-2005, 12:18 AM
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Re: NL Preflop Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] david- what does this hand query have to do with televised tournaments and the like? [/ QUOTE ] Are you serious? [/ QUOTE ] yeah, i am. i think its a good question, im not knocking it for that. look at the context of my post. this should be posted somewhere else, both because the WPT forum standard is abysmal, and it just doesnt fit. 
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#42
08-14-2005, 12:31 AM
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Re: NL Preflop Question
You have a point Voltron, but I'm pretty sure Sklansky uses this forum as his default outlet for his poker quizzes. His other posts in this forum have had little or no relation to televized poker or its personalities, per se. It is kind of a variation of the "I know this isn't the right forum but it gets the most traffic" so maybe Dynasty should step up and move the thread to a more appopriate forum.
Realistically, Sklanksy can get away with it. Do you see why?
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#43
08-14-2005, 12:49 AM
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Re: NL Preflop Question
[ QUOTE ]
"Why is this thread in this forum?" Because its not just for a bunch of gossipping old ladies. [/ QUOTE ] How many old ladies post in this forum?
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#44
08-14-2005, 12:50 AM
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Re: NL Preflop Question
[ QUOTE ]
i hate that people like paul phillips never post in MHNL. Maybe that is why you would post this here, because maybe those type of people will respond. But I would like if you posted in MHNL as well, so the fact that this is here makes me very sad. Please give a real reaosn for posting this here. The responses will be 95% morons like all the other posts in this forum. [/ QUOTE ] i actually would love for David Sklansky to post more on NL hands- cash game, STT, or Multi-table Tournament. he does'nt do it enough.
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#45
08-14-2005, 01:11 AM
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Re: NL Preflop Question
[ QUOTE ]
You have a point Voltron, but I'm pretty sure Sklansky uses this forum as his default outlet for his poker quizzes. His other posts in this forum have had little or no relation to televized poker or its personalities, per se. It is kind of a variation of the "I know this isn't the right forum but it gets the most traffic" so maybe Dynasty should step up and move the thread to a more appopriate forum. Realistically, Sklanksy can get away with it. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] well im not up in arms about this or anything, and i pretty much agree with you. i was just being a nit. that said many of the strong posters in mhnl never come to this forum so we miss out on their input.
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#46
08-14-2005, 02:00 AM
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Re: NL Preflop Question
if we can narrow him down with complete certainty to this range, I dont know that we can call. It just doesnt make sense here. Its a guaranteed situation where were flipping or dominated, so were losing a vast majority of the time. Since villian has such a short stack though, I know he would move him in because its impossible to put him on an exact range of hands such as the one we're discussing.
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#48
08-14-2005, 03:04 AM
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Re: NL Preflop Question
[ QUOTE ]
i hate that people like paul phillips never post in MHNL. Maybe that is why you would post this here, because maybe those type of people will respond. But I would like if you posted in MHNL as well, so the fact that this is here makes me very sad. Please give a real reaosn for posting this here. The responses will be 95% morons like all the other posts in this forum. [/ QUOTE ] Geez, This makes you 'very sad.' I'm surprised you could fight through your tears to make a post. And 95% of the responses will be by morons. Deeply sad and surrounded by morons; the human condition. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Frank
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#49
08-14-2005, 04:24 AM
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Re: NL Preflop Question
Yay time for another math exercise.
I'll go one-by-one through each option: FOLDING EV=0 MOVING IN You would be getting 330-280 odds on a push so this one is relatively simple to figure out. I'll do the math anyway. TT (6 combos) EV = +130 JJ+, AK (30 combos) EV = (280-[610*.29]) = -103 Overall, EV = -64 So all-in is horribly wrong. So this problem comes down to whether or not you can make a profit by calling and making the correct decision on the flop. I think you will flop a pair slighlty less than 1/3 of the time but I'll assume for the problem 1/3. If we hit a pair we almost always have to go all-in. So of the times we hit a pair, our EV must be > about 160. Anyway, the EV with a perfect one pair flop is only around 120. This assumes a flop like Q23r. Obviously there are more flops where your expecation will be lower than 120 or flops like QJT where it wouldn't even be correct to continue, making the 160 minimum requirement even higher. At any rate, I think it's a clear fold unless I butchered the math because it's late.
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#50
08-14-2005, 05:37 AM
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Re: NL Preflop Question
Here is my second attempt to evaluate the possible flops in case of calling.
A. Ace hits AA (1) --- 5% = 0 wins KK (6) --- 83% = 5 wins QQ (3) --- 90% = 2,7 wins JJ (6) --- 83% = 5 wins TT (6) --- 80% = 4,8 wins AK (12) --- 22% = 2,64 wins 34 combinations --- 20,14 wins B. Queen hits AA (3) --- 15,5% = 0,46 wins KK (6) --- 31,5% = 1,9 wins QQ (1) --- 3,5% = 0 wins JJ (6) --- 78% = 4,68 wins TT (6) --- 78% = 4,68 wins AK (12) --- 70% = 8,4 wins 34 combinations --- 20,12 wins Overall 68 combinations --- 40,26 wins = 59,2% (other 3 card combinations of A,K,Q,J,T...?) Little shortcut: Either ace or queen hit the flop in 32,4% of the cases (got that from Sklansky Hold'em). Over 100 tries we lose 67,6 x 80 = -5408. Over 100 tries we win 59,2% of 32,4 cases for +5754, but we lose 42% of the 32,4 cases for the all-in bet! This is an obvious bad call!? So folding is indeed the best solution?
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