Curtains: flop decision

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micro,

What is wrong with a push here? With 600 already in the middle I'd say it's +EV.

I'm not saying it's the best option....but those chips have significant value already even before any more get in there. I do rather like the idea of letting the villian stab at it and then raising allin, however. And if you get a free card, that also seems pretty good.

Yugoslav

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Not that you were asking me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] But I was trying to decide the best path for this. I figure if we push, we win 600 about 85% of the time. That's a value of T510. When we're called, we're either a 44% dog about 70% of the time (overpair, or even AK), or we're a 26% dog about 30% of the time (set). Our EV for that 15% of the time is -300, even counting the chips in the middle. So maybe pushing is worth T210, and when they call and we lose, we're out.

Compare that to a check. It's "risk free" for now, we have 18% chance to make the nuts, so a check is +T108, even we assume we must fold if we miss and they will never pay anything off. And we may make an Ace and win with that, too. And even if the turn is a blank, opp may check again.

I think a push is slightly +EV, but it's also hugely +variance and it is quite possibly not the most +EV when you consider a payoff from a good hand if we make our clubs.

[rvg72]

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I figure if we push, we win 600 about 85% of the time.

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For what it's worth, I think we have a much greater than 15% chance to be called here. I'd say there is at least a 30% chance he has 10's or higher or possibly a set and he would call here with that almost every time (say 80%). The other 70% he has a pretty good holding but would only call say 20% of the time.

30 x 80% + 70 x 20% = 38%

If those assumptions are correct then it is more like a 35 to 40% chance of getting called here. If this was a $22 or a $33 then it is a completely different story but in a higher limit game this smells like a trap.

rvg