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#11
10-17-2005, 02:13 PM
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Re: 7 Card Stud High $5/10 - losing control
this is a classic reverse implied odds scenario. On fourth, the c/r is a move he may make with a flush draw, two pair or trips. I won't fold my kings here and I doubt most would. But he's told you he's strong, so reraising doesn't make alot of sense. On fifth, forget knocking out unless the bettor is a maniac. He's told you he has a strong hand -- you may be behind or only slightly ahead and your prospects for improvement are most likely only to two pair. So you call. The pot is giving you plenty of overlay. Sixth, ditto.
And call the river with two pair. Note that you were probably winning until then, but there's no way of knowing. In stud, muchmore than in hold'em, calling can be correct. That's because independence of hands can mean you're more frequently a slight favorite or slight dog, as opposed to hold'em, where you are more often either drawing to five or less outs or have your opponent drawing to five or less outs. 
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#13
10-17-2005, 03:16 PM
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Re: 7 Card Stud High $5/10 - losing control
[ QUOTE ]
I would just go ahead and 3-bet on 4th street. If the third player were not the bring-in, it's probably best to wait until fifth to isolate, but since he probably has a weaker hand than if he limped in on 3rd, he will likely fold 4th for two more small bets. (Note: if the bring-in were a good player, I'd be more hesistant because a likely holding was (A2)2, but even this is unlikely given the dead ace.) [/ QUOTE ] I agree with 3 betting 3rd to try to get him out right there. It looks from the action that you could have taken a free card on 6th. That would have been wise, as it looks like you are at least against aces up and a strong draw. You have some outs to fill but I don't think your bet on 6th has much value at this point and it certainly won't get a fold from anyone if they are still drawing with the pot that big.
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#14
10-17-2005, 03:39 PM
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Re: 7 Card Stud High $5/10 - losing control
Not to be results oriented, but is waiting for 5th a much better move, than reraising 4th? I don't see much difference, b/c Seat 1 will be facing pretty bad odds on both streets. So why not try knocking him out one card earlier?
I usually play micro, so I can understand waiting for 5th at very small limits, but at 5/10 I'm guessing there's a good chance that a 4th St reraise will knock out a lot of players. Maybe I'm wrong? Edit: lol, Is the Chris Ferguson in your pic?
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#15
10-17-2005, 03:52 PM
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Re: 7 Card Stud High $5/10 - losing control
On the whole waiting for 5th vs. 3-betting 4th discussion:
I like waiting here much better, because: a) You force the 1 seat to call $20 cold instead of $10 b) On 4th, seat 1 has already put $$$ into the pot; I’ve found that people get kinda stubborn there c) I’d be willing to fold 5th if seat 2 catches another spade; obviously, I want the pot to be as small as possible when that happens d) If seat 2 has a 4-flush, he will have something like 50% equity, and the kings should have significantly less than 33%. 3-betting gives seat 2 the chance to cap it, and that’s clearly bad.
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#16
10-17-2005, 04:00 PM
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Re: 7 Card Stud High $5/10 - losing control
When you catch a brick on fifth and one of your kings falls elsewhere, giving the opponent who raised you on fourth a high str8 board, your chances of winning the pot are probably going down faster than new money is going in.
However, the money that's already in there from 3rd and 4th gives you an overlay, so you play on knowing you'll probably need to improve against most of his possible hands, and are drawing almost dead against trips. Since you're likely losing money on new bets, you'd need a really compelling scenario to k/o the other guy. And what hand will fold that you really want to fold here? Meanwhile, if the other guy does have a monster like trip jacks or aces up he is likely to three bet.
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#17
10-17-2005, 04:10 PM
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Re: 7 Card Stud High $5/10 - losing control
[ QUOTE ]
And what hand will fold that you really want to fold here? [/ QUOTE ] 242A3 252A3 262A3 272A3 282A3 292A3 2T2A3 2J2A3 2Q2A3 442A3 552A3 662A3 772A3 882A3 992A3 TT2A3 JJ2A3 QQ2A3 342A3 352A3 3sXs2sA3 (8X) And maybe some other crazy stuff I can’t think of now…
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#19
10-17-2005, 05:34 PM
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Re: 7 Card Stud High $5/10 - losing control
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Is the Chris Ferguson in your pic? [/ QUOTE ] it's Jesus grinding with Annie Duke posted some time back. There's definitely something funny about it. [/ QUOTE ] the fact that she is smelling her hairy armpit perhaps?
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