Gambling with the non jank

[Ed Miller]

HPFAP states that you need to have best hand around 2/3rd's of the time to bet the river for value

First of all, the number in HPFAP is 55% (you should understand where the number comes from). Second, the rule doesn't apply in multiway situations... as you are potentially getting odds on your bet (and it is also a bit of a parlay as well, as you have to beat multiple hands). Having said that, I think you fear the checkraise far too much... your opponents have all checked to you on the river... that usually means they are weak. You also aren't taking into account the pot size. Worse hands are much more likely to call in large pots than in small pots. For the same reason bluffing in this situation is unprofitable, value betting, especially with a hand like AK here, is. This a value bet... and I don't think it's close.

As for your contention that he should bet the flop... would you bet the flop with AA here? I would consider checking AA as well... the pot is large enough that it is probably worth it to wait for the turn to pull the trigger. The reason is that a flop bet does not protect the pot because it is so large. Couple that with the fact that his hand is weak, and I think he has a clear check on the flop. He also has a clear call when his call closes the action.

I think this hand is pretty straightforward and am surprised that so many people are disagreeing with me.

[MarkD]

I was just coming back to post that the number I quoted probably only applied to head's up. I was fuzzy on that when I posted and hungry, on the drive for supper I realized that quote probably didn't apply and that the percentage might be off (I didn't go to the book for it).

I understand the size of the pot and the situation that creates for value betting, I just don't think the hand is good in this situation and raising the turn would make a lot of people automatically go for the check raise on the river with a made hand. Irregardless I don't think the hand is strong enough to value bet here.

I'd still bet the flop, although there is an argument for checking and calling (not the same argument you use for checking AA in anyway though). To answer your question, I would most likely bet AA on the flop and it's probably a mistake of mine.

[J.R.]

I would consider checking AA as well... the pot is large enough that it is probably worth it to wait for the turn to pull the trigger.

There is no way I would check AA here. The HPFAP idea of checking the flop with AA on the flop is overrated and applies to a small pot where you can possibly induce your opponents to make a turn call not justified by the pot odds by raising on the expensive street. That does not apply to a situtation like this where the pot is huge. There is no way you should check AA here, and you should probably bet AK here on ocassion, especially if you can buy position on the turn or your opponents are tight and make bad folds.

[Dynasty]

I'm surprised no one is considering a flop fold as an option.

When you're getting 23:1 and are closing the flop betting action, folding two overcards and a backdoor straight draw is way too tight. Even if you want to eliminate the Ad and Kd as outs, he's still got good pot odds. Even if you want to also eliminate his non-diamond Ace (or King) outs, he's still got the pot odds to draw to his two-outer without considering the straight. It looks like you need to have him drawing dead for a fold to be correct.

[soda]

yeah, checking AA would be silly in a pot of this size. Unless you were checkraising. You don't want to give a free card.

I also agree with your assessment of AK. I'd only bet if it gains me something - namely a free card next round if I need it.

soda

[Ed Miller]

The HPFAP idea of checking the flop with AA on the flop is overrated and applies to a small pot...

That is not the play I'm talking about. I'm talking about the play in a large pot where a flop bet won't protect your hand but a turn raise will. 6-way for three bets each is about on the cusp of where this play enters consideration. Any draw and its mother can call one bet on the flop profitably here (like Hero's offsuit overcards, for instance)... thus a flop bet doesn't serve to protect your hand very well. Instead of betting on the flop, and then betting again on the turn when checked to, you check on the flop and then raise when they put you on overcards and bet into you on the turn.

[Ed Miller]

yeah, checking AA would be silly in a pot of this size.

The pot being large is what makes you consider the play. Check it out on p.170 of HPFAP. The pot could actually stand to be a little larger for the play to be correct...

[calvin]

Hello,

I agree. I think in any hand where the pot is large, such as this one, smooth calling the flop and going for the check raise on the turn, as described in HEPFAP, is one of the most effective ways to protect your hand.

Everyone in their right mind should chase the last card in the deck when the pot is large, as almost any out is getting the correct odds for a draw. Where players will fold and make mistakes, though, is calling two bets on the turn. Here, very few draws are justified, and most low limit players will quickly fold their mediocre, weak, and hopless hands.



Calvin

[Yerma]

I don't know anything but we will talk about this:


So here's a hand I watched yesterday. It's 4-8 full kill and amazingly it happens to be a kill pot again.

UTG folds, UTG+2 raises. He likes to open raise kill pots but will have some semblance of a hand (not a real hand but a semblance of a hand). The killer calls and hero 3 bets with AcKh. Two people call behind, the SB folds and the BB calls. The original raiser calls and the killer calls. 6 people see the flop for 3 bets.

Flop: Jd8d6h

It's checked to the cutoff who bets. Button, BB calls, original raiser calls, killer calls, hero calls.


It's 7:1 against to hit overcard draws, right? So you need an overlay because of the number of people in the pot and the nature of the board. With his situation I say 15:1 is a close gamble and 20:1 is surely enough. But who actually knows? I mean that seriously, does anyone know and can say what you think the numbers should be and why? I sit on experience to come up with my figures but that can always be wrong.

Also, is there a max number of players where you just fold unless the pot is offering like 100:1? I mean, if all 9 players call preflop and on the flop and its up to you then hitting an ace or king won't be good enough by showdown for sure.

ps. He can bet but maybe he gets so lucky that it's checked through? Or maybe someone check-raises and oops, problem is now solved! I don't like to bet it should be clear.


Turn: Ks

BB now bets. Original raiser calls, killer calls. Hero raises and folds the people behind him. Everyone in front of him calls.


Everyone so far thinks that he's raising for value on the turn. Are you sure that that's what it is? He checks the river, so I don't think he's raising 3 players on the turn and checking the river because he thinks he's certainly ahead on the turn. Maybe he raised for value on the turn and got chicken on the river if he doesn't know anything?


River: 10

Checked around.


Would you bet for value? I see one person saying no and the rest of you saying yes. I think that if hero decides he's likely beat on the turn and tactic-raises anyways yet fails to improve on teh river then he shouldn't bet the river.

Grade Hero's play on this hand.

I'll pass.

[PokerPrince]

Missed a river bet. Nicely played on all other streets.


PokerPrince