Full house on paired board

medaugh · #1 04-22-2005, 10:00 PM

River play is in question; Check fold right?

no read on villian,has not played many hands and when he did it never went to show down.
PokerStars 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO bets, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP folds.

Got greedy? Should have bet?

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, CO raises, Hero calls.

Me thinks I'm in trouble

River: (8.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

istewart · #2 04-22-2005, 10:04 PM

I think you can fold the turn. And yes, you should've bet the flop.

Dave G. · #3 04-22-2005, 10:07 PM

Bet the flop please. Since you checked and CO bet, raise the flop please.

With this many people seeing the flop, another king is a good possibility. I'd either check/call both the turn and river or just check/fold the turn. The pot is pretty small and there's a good chance you're beaten.

Calling the turn raise (or check/calling the turn) and planning to fold on the river is wasting a bet. If you aren't going to call a river bet, fold the turn and save your money.

deepsquat · #4 04-22-2005, 10:10 PM

Bet this flop everytime, and 3 bet it if raised.

This will make the rest of the hand easier. Then you lead the turn and make a decision when raised. It looks like he has a king but i have a hard time folding fullhouses.

cmwck · #5 04-22-2005, 10:20 PM

Call the river. Even if you split the pot he only has to have 8's 1/5.75 = 17% of the time

Dave G. · #6 04-22-2005, 10:27 PM

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Call the river. Even if you split the pot he only has to have 8's 1/5.75 = 17% of the time

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Statistically speaking, with 3 8's already accounted for, villain will have another 8 here only 4.3% of the time. You don't have enough odds to call the river based on this logic.

milesdyson · #7 04-22-2005, 10:40 PM

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Call the river. Even if you split the pot he only has to have 8's 1/5.75 = 17% of the time

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Statistically speaking, with 3 8's already accounted for, villain will have another 8 here only 4.3% of the time. You don't have enough odds to call the river based on this logic.

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So the remaining 96% of the time he has a K? Wtf mate?

cmwck · #8 04-22-2005, 10:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call the river. Even if you split the pot he only has to have 8's 1/5.75 = 17% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Statistically speaking, with 3 8's already accounted for, villain will have another 8 here only 4.3% of the time. You don't have enough odds to call the river based on this logic.

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So the remaining 96% of the time he has a K? Wtf mate?

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Yes, wtf. I think the correct way to compute the statistic is:

Given the action so far, he probably has an 8 or a king.

On the turn, we can see 3 8's and two kings. Thus, there is one unseen 8 and 2 unseen kings for a total of 3 unseen cards.

so 1/3 of his possible cards is an 8, and the other 2/3 are a king. Thus, he has an eight 1/3=33% of the time and a king 2/3=66% of the time.

Dave G. · #9 04-22-2005, 10:55 PM

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So the remaining 96% of the time he has a K? Wtf mate?

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Uhh, where exactly did I say that?.

If it helps, he is more than twice as likely to have a K here than an 8.

33% is greatly overestimating his chance of having an 8. Even with your assumption, the probability of it is far too small to just bump it up to 1 out of 3. 66% is also far too high for a K, but it's certainly much more likely.

milesdyson · #10 04-22-2005, 11:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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So the remaining 96% of the time he has a K? Wtf mate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh, where exactly did I say that?.

If it helps, he is more than twice as likely to have a K here than an 8.

33% is greatly overestimating his chance of having an 8. Even with your assumption, the probability of it is far too small to just bump it up to 1 out of 3. 66% is also far too high for a K, but it's certainly much more likely.

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Cool, great, not that I ever made my own assumption or anything. I really didn't even look at the first post, so your percentages are probably good.