Did I play this too fast?

[Niediam]

Protection betting/raising can also have the effect of influencing profitable calling hands to fold as they may think you are stronger than you are. For example, a raise with an overpair make make somebody fold a five out hand who had correct odds to call fold because he thinks you may have a set.

Anyhow, I just read the sections of SSH and TOP about large pots again and neither suggest anything other than trying to win a large pot right away. What you say does make some sense to me theoretically... I'd imagine that some of the other player's wouldn't have correct odds to call a bet but other's will. However, it seem's inherently wrong to me allow people to make correct calls when you can possibly set up a situation where they either have to pay too much to see the next card or fold.

[hate]

I'm going to have to think about this myself. I always find myself in situations like this, and the only thing I think about is "oooh, look at the pretty colors" and operate like that's the only thing to worry about, because it'll be a stronger hand if it does hit, even though protection might also be important.

[Hojglad]

[ QUOTE ]
I was still the favourite to win it, although it was based only upon my draws.

[/ QUOTE ]
After the turn, no you weren't. JJ had more outs to the boat (10) than you did for your nut flush (9).

[dreddie26]

why should you bet on the turn ? With him raising the flop you have a good change he has a high pocket pair. He has more outs than you, and your not drawing for the nuts. I think it would be have been better to check-call the turn. on the river i probaly would have done the same, bet-call raise.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
why should you bet on the turn ? With him raising the flop you have a good change he has a high pocket pair. He has more outs than you, and your not drawing for the nuts. I think it would be have been better to check-call the turn. on the river i probaly would have done the same, bet-call raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is weak, monster-seeing type thinking and is hurting my brain. When villain raises the flop he could have a variety of things including A high, where he was raising to protect. And BTW, hero IS drawing to the nuts. An A high flush on a non-paired board would definitely be the nuts (discounting the unlikely potential str8 flush). I hope you see that. If you don't, read a book. the nut flush draw with a pair and A kicker, with 4 others in the pot is a GREAT spot to bet here. As for the river, we are going to win this pot a LOT. The only reasonable hand we are behind here given the aggression is JJ, and villain will have that very seldom. AA/KK/QQ/AJ are just as (or more) likely than JJ. This makes a river 3-bet pretty profitable, especially with two other people (who have shown no aggression) calling down. Your thinking sounds like it is pretty weak tight to me.

This post sounds pretty harsh. I don't mean it to sound mean-spirited. It's 6am and I am too tired to tone it down. Sorry.

[dreddie26]

ok your wright he is drawing for the nuts (but with only 9 outs then) Why bet on the turn, if your drawing and he has better ods ? You don't get value from your bet on the turn.

[jaxUp]

You have 9 outs to the nut flush on this hand. you will make this flush (roughly) 1 in 5 times. We can also pretty safely assume that both of the other 8's are clean. This gives us2 more outs. There are 3 more aces in the deck, so we will count them as 1.5 outs total. This means that you have a total of 9+2+1.5 = 12.5 outs. so the odds of hitting your hand is a bit better than 1 in 4. A bet here is good because if everybody calls (not too uncommon) you are making money because you are only putting in 1/5 of the money on this round. If 1 person folds (more likely) then you are still at break even, with a chance to perhaps get a cheap showdown if you miss, because people may be afraid of your aggression on previous streets. Calling once youi get raised on the turn is generally fine (though I think a somewhat weak case could be made for capping in this case), but it is very important to get that first raise in there in this case.

EDIT: somebody tell me if my math is wrong and correct me. This is the first time I've tried a post like this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[afk]

Hey niediam,

You make very good points, and I think I'd share your view say if hero had flopped an ace, rather than an 8 as top pair. Since the original poster didn't include any reads (maybe I missed them) I'm going to assume the preflop raiser is typical party $.5/1 - Which means he plays 40-50% hands and only raises when he's got the goods (usually).

I think hero is behind AA-JJ here most of the time here (of course we could also see AK or AQ) and is going to need that draw to win, so I'm taking the angle that I'm going to try to make money off the draw.

That's just my gut instinct, and if it's flat out wrong, then I've got a thing or two to learn.

[dreddie26]

a's and 8's are not outs, because there not the nuts. In fact if one of these carts fall it can cost you only extra.
there only 4 players, so even if youre odds are 1:4 you only break even at most.
So i still think you don't get value for that bet on the turn and should check (and call).

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
a's and 8's are not outs, because there not the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's very incorrect. Landing and Ace or 8 will win you the pot a good chunk of the time, you don't need the nuts to win the pot.