SHOULD I BET MILLION

[Smoothcall]

Assuming i had 1,000,000 and was regular winner in the biggest games in vegas that my bankroll was sufficient for. Would it be the best play to risk the whole thing on black or red at roulette if the house gave me 2 to 1 on it. Remember if i lose i will be broke and not be able to earn at that level or anywhere near it maybe never or at least for long time. In fact i can't earn at any level as you are now broke. What is the best play.

[Chizoad]

Sure but get someone else in on the action and chop up the profit/loss with them so you can still play and get your money back when the casino rigs the spin.

Chiz

[DanS]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming i had 1,000,000 and was regular winner in the biggest games in vegas that my bankroll was sufficient for. Would it be the best play to risk the whole thing on black or red at roulette if the house gave me 2 to 1 on it. Remember if i lose i will be broke and not be able to earn at that level or anywhere near it maybe never or at least for long time. In fact i can't earn at any level as you are now broke. What is the best play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about you, but the difference in utility that I get between $1 mil and $3 mil is a helluva lot smaller than $1 mil and $0, all else being equal.

Dan

[Luke]

It all depends on both your own risk aversion and the marginal utility of wealth that you will receive in regards to an additional one million dollars.

As for what you should do... that's up to you.

Luke

[mplspoker]

Obviusly, you shouldn't do the straight up bet, b/c you'll either have more or nothing.. With a million dollars you have a substantial amount and don't need to worry about bankroll contrictions for the most part......

[schroedy]

Let's make the not unreasonable assumption that by "the biggest game in Vegas" you leave out the world champion-fest that is the Bellagio's "big game." Other than that, I don't think anything higher than $100/$200 is spread too often. You will be fine with a $100,000 bankroll for that game.

You also don't say how much you can beat it by.

In any event, your best bet (if you are my age) is to take $900,000 buy a mixed fixed income (bond) fund paying 4-5%, or a tax-free situation paying a little less. (If W passes the dividend exclusion, then some kind of high dividend stock portfolio might be better.) If you are my son's age and probably are going to be playing winning poker to pass your time anyway, and you can use your winnings to live on, you might want to try real estate or index funds with some portion of your million. I would still put about 50% into fixed incomes (70 minus your age = % of your nest egg to go into fixed income).

The best solution is of course to take the best of it and lay off the risk -- or here's an even better deal -- buy the red at 2:1 and sell all of it (or more) at something profitable (for the buyer) like 1.33:1.

[Smoothcall]

See the way i look at it is i will earn that extra $2 million and then some over my lifetime if i pass on the bet that could put me in ruin.

[Smoothcall]

Listen if you want start your own post about what you would do if you had a million dollars feel free to but that is not relevent to this discussion. Don't change my question and say he doesn't need a milion bankroll and he will only play 100-200 limits cause that is not what i said. What i said was would you risk your whole one milion dollar bankroll on this bet period. Yes or no. That was the option that the casino gave you.

[evanski]

Lay off the caffeine.

-Evan

[mike l.]

yes but it will take you a whole life. definitely take the bet. you can always work your way back up from zero again pretty easily if you are that great of a player.