AJo UTG

[milesdyson]

fold the flop! call with the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. otherwise you're really in [censored] shape. your implied odds are very bad for hitting your ace - ie. you will have to check to him, and he may bet the turn with QQ, but he won't bet the river with it. he will bet with AK/AQ. so those times he has a better ace really detract from the times

a. you hit your ace.
b. he bets more than once with a worse hand after you check.

[bottomset]

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I think this is a decent range, possibly AJ AT even 88 or 77 could be discounted but considered possible.



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um I really hope you guys aren't 3betting UTG(10handed) raises with those hands when its a TAG raising, and especially from MP3

of course a Tag opening from MP3, and you on the btn OTOH is a totally different ballgame

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Would limping pre-flop be bad?

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no its not bad, both options run close in EV

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um I really hope you guys aren't 3betting UTG(10handed) raises with those hands when its a TAG raising, and especially from MP3

of course a Tag opening from MP3, and you on the btn OTOH is a totally different ballgame

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2 things....
1) Im not a TAG, so its a little different situation
2) Im sure most 2+2ers wouldnt 3bet preflop with those hands, but like i said it was a small sample size and many players at this level will, im just saying they should be a discounted part of the vils range.

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Edit: forgot about your hidden outs, you have roughly 3 out to win and 3 outs to split (maybe more if he 3 bets AQ) since you are getting about 10-1 plus implied odds, you can call and fold the river UI.

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yep this was the main reason i called the turn, but i think your odds are way too big at the end to fold TPDK. there is definitely a 10+% chance he has AJ/AT/PP. keeping in mind if we are checking the river he is betting with his entire range.


btw thanks again guys, i need to be able to autolay flops like this so the assurance was good.

[milesdyson]

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keeping in mind if we are checking the river he is betting with his entire range.

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?

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keeping in mind if we are checking the river he is betting with his entire range.

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?

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sorry that wasnt clear.

what i meant was.

IF he has played KK or QQ this hard so far, i would find it very unlikely he is going to slow down on the river when we again dont show strength.

in other words, him betting the river when we check is almost automatic and i dont think it tells us anything MORE about his hand that we didnt know on the turn.

[milesdyson]

oh, i don't think so. often this a free showdown play with one of those pairs, where he has decided on the turn that he will be calling a river bet, so he chooses to get the money in on the turn where it is possible you are both drawing.

he bets this river much much more often with AA/AK/AQ than with any pocket pair he chose to raise on the turn.

actually objectively you are right.

i guess its hard not to be results oriented when you know the results =P

[Mathieu]

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think your odds are way too big at the end to fold TPDK. there is definitely a 10+% chance he has AJ/AT/PP. keeping in mind if we are checking the river he is betting with his entire range.


btw thanks again guys, i need to be able to autolay flops like this so the assurance was good.

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OK, I am guessing you won the hand and villain showed you an overplayed pocket pair.

My advice to fold the river UI was because I thought you were fairly confident villain was a TAG. Against an unknown I would call. But against a solid TAG, even the pot size does not make this a call.

I hope you agree that the flop is a clear fold though. Because here even against an average villain you have less than 3 outs on the flop and the pot is not big enough to justify continuing with ~3 outs. Also your implied odds are really bad as Miles pointed out.

You have to call the flop but when villain is raising the turn ,its imo not correct to call. He isnt bluffing since BB keeps him honest. He has AK,AQ,AA here. You have 10% equity against this range and is getting 10:1. However are you good enough to fold the river UI for only a variance play..

[Mathieu]

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You have to call the flop

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Why? 11.5-1 is it? With on average less than 3 outs, and being in a spot where improving could end up costing you even more. So implied odds are not looking good. I think the flop is more clear than the turn and river.