A Value Bet Too Thin?

DrPublo · #1 03-23-2005, 11:02 AM

To bet or not to bet?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($56)
UTG ($81)
Hero ($137.85)
MP1 ($91.75)
MP2 ($94.65)
MP3 ($280.5)
CO ($110.9)
Button ($106.7)
SB ($299.7)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 5 folds, SB (poster) calls $4.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($11) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero raises to $15, SB calls $10.

Turn: ($41) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, SB calls $20.

River: ($81) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero....

Based on his actions and stats (about 65% VPIP), I thought his most likely holdings were pair+straight draw hands that he had decided to call down with, or possibly A6. Who bets , and how much?

The Doc

jhall23 · #2 03-23-2005, 12:17 PM

Doc, do you think that this villian is capable of making a move based on the backdoor flush that got there? The more I feel that he would be able to, the more likely I am to check behind.

If he is just a calling station I think he might be able to call about a 1/2 pot size bet with his pair if he has something like A6, 67. Have you noticed any tendencies on the river when his draw doesn't make it with the pair + straight draws he has been playing? If I don't have a read I probably check behind as most players wouldn't call another bet on the river with just top pair (maybe a high PP though).

KowCiller · #3 03-23-2005, 01:24 PM

I think checking behind is ok, as your stack is at about $97 on the turn and any bet you make will tie you to the hand.

If you feel he's on pair+straight draw, I think you need to make a stronger bet on the turn. At least 3/4th of the pot. With a 1/2 pot sized bet, he's getting about the right price if he's holding something like 67.

KoW

Eric Milas · #4 03-23-2005, 01:33 PM

I personally would check here. If you're beat he will call you or worse he could be check raising.

Wayfare · #5 03-23-2005, 01:44 PM

If you get river checkraised here, you might have to spend about 20 minutes cleaning up the vomit all over your computer and keyboard.

DrPublo · #6 03-23-2005, 03:09 PM

Agreed I could bet $30-$35 on the turn and be confident I'm beat if he raises.

The Doc

DrPublo · #7 03-23-2005, 03:09 PM

I had a fairly solid read he's the calling station type.

The Doc

DrPublo · #8 03-23-2005, 03:11 PM

I think, decide he's most likely got one pair and will call a smallish bet on the river. Moreover, I feel that the turn and river are bricks and that if I was ahead on the turn, I should still be ahead here. Smells like a value bet.

Hero bets $30. Villain raises to $60. Hero?

The Doc

DrPublo · #9 03-23-2005, 03:11 PM

What hand do you put him on that if I was ahead on the turn I'm no longer ahead on the river?

The Doc

KowCiller · #10 03-23-2005, 03:22 PM

Lets see, if my math is correct, you've got to put in $30 more to win $170 or so.

Grab a kleenex, listen to the violin music in the background, and click the call button.

Call me a fish but for $30 I think you're ahead of something like pocket 7s, 67s, or a pure bluff often enough to make this crying call.

Harrington mentions in his book that on any hand, the chance a player is bluffing is at least 10%. I think villian will have some sort of busted straight draw or lower pair at least another 10% of the time... so if you take those two assumptions, you're ahead 20% of the time making this call profitable.

KoW