Semi- against a LAG

[kapw7]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB is LAG (47/36/2) and attempts to steal nearly every time.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

I represent a slowplayed big hand, I have a nice flush draw, decent outs for my overcards, I even might be ahead here. And last but not least a lot of times I can take the pot right there.

[CIncyHR]

How often do you win it here against tthis player? Even if its only like 15% I think this is a good play.

NH

[Rev. Good Will]

[ QUOTE ]
How often do you win it here against tthis player? Even if its only like 15% I think this is a good play.

NH

[/ QUOTE ]

not to be a nit, but if we give hero ~12 outs here, villian would only have to fold more than 24% of the time for it to be profitable? (usually more than 50% for a bluff part, but deduct the 26% of the time where hero will draw to a winning hand on the river.)

[milesdyson]

the pot is 4 bb.

[Rev. Good Will]

and hero is risking 2BB to win it, so 50% needed if we were only bluffing, no?

[ QUOTE ]
and hero is risking 2BB to win it, so 50% needed if we were only bluffing, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's 33%. If the bluff is successful, he wins 4BB, if it fails, he's lost 2BB. He will have to win 1 for every 2 he lost.

However, was this the plan at the flop? What is the plan at the flop? Why did you call?

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]

However, was this the plan at the flop? What is the plan at the flop? Why did you call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't defend by folding. Villain can have anything, no big cards on the flop so I am thinking that I can extract more bets if I hit something on the turn or sometimes make him fold his hand. So my plan was to raise a Q, 9 or heart and
usually raise any non A,K turn if he bets. If he checks I bet Q,9 and check anything else. My read was that he is a thinking LAG who can make folds (and bad folds as well) and not the maniac LAG that will 3-bet me with nothing because he felt offended or for whatever crazy reason he might have.

[jrz1972]

Hero doesn't need to win by bluffing that often. Even if villain calls, Hero will still frequently win by sucking out on the river. In that case, he'll often get an extra river bet out of the deal.

Furthermore, Hero was definitely calling the turn anyway, so he's really only risking one extra bet (the raise) to take down the pot. It would really suck to be 3-bet, but that's a tough play for villain to find, at least in my experience.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB is LAG (47/36/2) and attempts to steal nearly every time.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

I represent a slowplayed big hand, I have a nice flush draw, decent outs for my overcards, I even might be ahead here. And last but not least a lot of times I can take the pot right there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like it as long as SB isn't too aggressive. To a stealer, your play looks like you're trying to steal the pot back from him because the flop and turn are so low and ragged. If he's very aggro, you're getting 3-bet quite a bit. In that case, I call and hope to improve on the river since raising accomplishes very little. Besides, by calling here and folding the river, you encourage him to bluff even more, which leans him towards making more errors.