presto -- isolating an all-in raiser preflop

[M.B.E.]

The table has a nice mixture of weak-tight players and loose players. It's a 10-20 game.

UTG raises all-in. It's folded to me, three off the button with 55. I three-bet. Only the button calls. We take the flop heads up on the side with 7.5 bets in the main pot, 2 bets in the side pot. The button is a tricky, aggressive player with good hand-reading skills.

I flop a set: <font color="purple">K-J-5</font color> rainbow. I bet, the button raises, I call.

The turn is an <font color="purple">ace</font color>. I check-raise, my opponent three-bets, I four-bet, and he calls.

River is a ten. Final board: <font color="purple">K-J-5-A-T</font color>, no flush possible. There's 3.5 big bets in the main pot, 11 big bets in the side pot. What should I do and why? Also what do you think of my play to this point? At the time I believed that my pre-flop three-bet made sense but now I think folding would have been better.

Results later.<font color="purple">

I think folding is a little better in that spot. I don't like the call of the raise on the flop, and lots of times if you go for a check raise on the turn when the ace falls, you'll give your opponent a freebie. If I'm the button and I've got KQ, I'm probably checking that sucker. Bet the river, call if he raises. Unless he's a bonehead who'll bet 2 pair on the end if you check. Then check.

[skp]

I don't think he has a Queen. If he did, it's hard to see how he can go that many bets on the turn unless of course he had QT but if he did, he probably keeps raising the turn (besides, I doubt that he calls three cold before the flop with QT). So, you should be in the lead on the river unless he specifically has JJ with which he likely will not raise if you bet but will bet if you check. I doubt that he bets any other hand except perhaps AK. However, it will be tough for you to checkraise any river bet. So, the best play is to bet as there are lots of hands that he will call with that you beat.

BTW, I put him on AJ or AK with AJ being more likely.

Hi there, I am a 10-20 player mostly myself.

And this is a tough one. The problem as I see it, is that you can't put your opponent off the hands that have you beat on the turn. These hands are AA, KK, JJ, and QT.

By that I mean that if your opponent has AA, KK, JJ, then he has played correctly so far. Capping pre-flop with those holdings might be too revealing in the case of AA and KK, and maybe too optimistic in the case off JJ. With all three hands, it would be better to lay down a bear trap by cold-calling, seeing the flop, and more importantly for this particular opponent, seeing your reaction to the flop.

Calling QT for three bets cold pre-flop is not likely however, but it could be done by a tricky aggressive player with good hand-reading skills that's put you on a small pair isolation play pre-flop, and believe's he can outplay you post-flop. Not likely, but possible.

Having said all that, I think you played your set aggressively, and also correctly. At the river I personally would probably chicken out due to the uncertainty of where I stand, and check-call. If my opponent bet's, I would expect to have lost the hand. If not, then I would expect to have beaten AK.

I also would think it would be fine to bet the river, hoping not to miss out on an extra bet.

lysis

[M.B.E.]

SKP wrote: <font color="green">BTW, I put him on AJ or AK with AJ being more likely. </font color>

Exactly right! Don't quite know how you figured it out, but he had AJo. I was surprised to see it: I thought AK was much more likely than AJ. I was surprised he called three cold preflop with AJo and that he raised the flop with only second pair.

To recap, the final board was K-J-5-A-T, no flush possible. On the river I checked my bottom set and the button checked behind. Button had AJ, all-in player had 44, so I took both pots.

Commentary:

Preflop, I raised obviously to get it heads up with my small pair, thinking that I could then see five board cards for free and have an overlay as a presumed 6-to-5 favourite. There are two problems with this. First, the all-in player might have a bigger pair, in which case I'm putting in money as an underdog with no implied odds. That factor alone probably makes raising a negative-expectation play. (Also, I think I read somewhere that a small pair is not a favourite over a hand like JTs or T9s. True?) Second, the play is pretty obvious, and my five opponents still to act know that I might not have a legitimate three-betting hand, and call me with a bigger pocket pair than mine or something like AJo. Then if I don't flop a set I have a difficult hand to play out of position since I don't know my opponent's hand. So in hindsight I think I should have folded preflop.

On the flop and turn, Joey Joe Joe made a reasonable point that I took a risk by going for a turn checkraise instead of threebetting the flop. Looking at the hand in hindsight, I got really lucky that the ace hit on the turn and he had two pair. My opponent was probably raising the flop to get a free card on the turn. If anything other than an ace or jack had hit, I guess he would have checked behind me. Looking at the situation from my perspective at the time, my opponent could easily have had KQs, KTs, QJs, or JTs, any of which would give him on the turn middle pair with a gutshot. He might bet that on the turn hoping for me to fold, but he'd be more likely to check.

In conclusion, I think my flop play was okay although three-betting would also have been fine. However, when the ace hit on the turn I should have bet out rather than gone for the checkraise.

I like my four-bet on the turn: it was most likely that he three-bet with two pair although a bigger set than mine or even a straight (QTs) was possible. Of course if my opponent went to five bets I would only call.

On the river I checked because I thought my opponent could have the nuts, a single queen. But after the hand I realized, for the reasons stated by SKP, that my opponent was unlikely to have had a straight. But on the other side of the equation he might well have had AA, KK, or JJ. (By the way SKP, why did you rule out AA or KK? Because he didn't four-bet preflop?)

If I bet the river, he will raise me with a straight but as I said before he's unlikely to have it. He might also raise with AA but probably not. With any other hand he will call. (Very unlikely he would fold after putting in all that money on the turn.) If I check then he will bet a straight and probably a set but probably not two pair. Clearly, then, my play is to bet and then fold if he raises. Only one problem: that's the correct play in theory but I'd never implement it at the table. I just don't fold a set for one more bet heads up on the river. So given that I will call my opponent if he raises it's close between checking and betting out, but I think betting out is still correct.

To summarize: I made the wrong play preflop and got lucky to hit a set; I made an okay play on the flop; I made the wrong play on the turn and got very lucky my opponent had an ace and played it so strongly; and I made the wrong play on the river costing myself $20.

By the way, after SKP posted his reply I saw him in person and told him who the particular player on the button was. SKP did not agree with my description of the player as "a tricky, aggressive player with good hand-reading skills".

[skp]

Why did I rule out AA or KK for your opponent?

Just as you sometimes get a feel for a hand while playing it, you also get a feel for a hand as you are reading about it on the net.

I wasn't really relying on his failure to cap preflop as evidence of no KK or AA. I was relying more on raising the flop but not 3 betting (as evidence of no AA) and failure to cap the turn (as evidence of no AA or KK). BTW, the chap you speak of tends to play his strong hands weakly and weak hands fast - so I consider him tricky in a predictable way.