to push or not to push - that is the question

[OneCentRob]

OK nobody has been very interested in my last 2 posts, so I hope I might get some more replies to this one. Comments on all streets most welcome. I didn't have much of a read on button but he seemed like a fairly average tight player.

2/4 No Limit - Cash Game - 10 handed

Hero (BB) $572.75 with 9d 9c
MP $396.00
Button $797.35

MP raised - $16.00
Button and Hero both call.

flop: 4s, 9s, 8h

check check check!

turn: Jh

Hero bets - $28.00
MP folded
Button called - $28.00

river: 4c (pot ~$100)

Hero bet - $72.00
Button raised - $144.00

Push?

[AnyutaDva]

I'd bet the flop here. With so many draws on the board there is every chance you will get action, and it disguises your hand because people tend not to lead with top set. Sometimes everyone will fold which will suck, but you want to win a big pot and if no-one has anything that is not going to happen. If I checked the flop I'd definately bet more on the turn. On the river I definately reraise, though possibly not push. The only hands you are behind are Jacks full and quads, which implies he has checked from pos with an overpair or trips on the flop, and then flat called a 1/2 pot bet with trips on the turn. I guess thats possible, but surely at some stage most players would want to get the money in with either of those hands. So you are looking to get paid off for as much as possible here. I'm having real difficulty on putting him on any type of intelligently played hand here. Maybe Ace Four of hearts? So I raise maybe another couple of hundred, I think if you push maybe you get a fold out of anything less than a full house.

[jrforman]

The only hand your losing to here is pocket jacks, a hand in which villain will bet the flop almost always because he has an overpair. The smooth call and min-raise on the river smells more like pocket 8s than jacks. I think you need to push here and win more than 50% of the time.

[Gregg777]

[ QUOTE ]
to push or not to push - that is the question


[/ QUOTE ]

I think the question should be "Why aren't you just getting the rest in on the river?"

You have to pot that flop, I would also pot the turn and get the rest in on that blank river. If villian is average tight he won't have QT, if he has JJ I am paying him off.

[gol4pro]

I pay off JJ on turn as well, and Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] too.

Flop is terrible-- lead for 3/4 to full pot. Might even be a good one to overbet.

Given the fact that the turn could have helped either of them, I'm inclined to CR here, but checking through would be awful-- therefore, I probably pot again.

River... I don't think he's got that big of a hand. Although his min raise does confuse me. Could he have A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and think he just counterfeited your 2 pair?! Seems possible, but not probable.

I think I pop river to 300. 88 shoves in anyway, and if he did slowplay a big PP, you get him to call.

[metsmaniac823]

Is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the realm of possibility here? Got a free card after the flop to draw at his flush, TPTK with nut flush draw on turn would seem to be a easy calling hand (or would he raise?), then a stupid min-raise to represent three 4s. I agree with the raise, not all-in though, to $300-$350.

This may be too general a question, but has anyone found that min-raisers on the river will rarely if ever fold to a reraise, especially an all-in? Or is it the opposite? Just curious, I don't really respond to hand posts... um, ever.

I'm having trouble putting button on a hand here.

4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Would he call PF with that?
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Would he call PF and just call turn with that?
88 would he check flop with that?
I can't see TT-QQ checking the flop.

I think he puts you on AJ so he might be min raising river with 45. I think a raise to 288 is fine because I don't think he has 88 and probably won't call a push with 45. Might with QT but I don't see him calling with that PF and only smooth calling with it on the turn unless its QsTs or QhTh.

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
flop: 4s, 9s, 8h

check check check!

[/ QUOTE ]

Lead the flop. It's been said already, but I'm going to re-emphasize that with a lot of possible draws you HAVE to lead that flop. Any free card you give here could easily beat you, especially 3-handed.

I rule out Button for JJ. He would've either re-raised pre-flop or bet the flop. JJ's get extremely excited when their hands becomes an overpair to the flop and are smart enough to realize that half the deck will kill them on the turn.

Re-raise to 300 or so on the river. Leading the flop would have created a much bigger pot, which in turn would've allowed you to get it all-in here.

Kirk

[Lucky]

[ QUOTE ]
OK nobody has been very interested in my last 2 posts, so I hope I might get some more replies to this one. Comments on all streets most welcome. I didn't have much of a read on button but he seemed like a fairly average tight player.

2/4 No Limit - Cash Game - 10 handed

Hero (BB) $572.75 with 9d 9c
MP $396.00
Button $797.35

MP raised - $16.00
Button and Hero both call.

flop: 4s, 9s, 8h

check check check!

turn: Jh

Hero bets - $28.00
MP folded
Button called - $28.00

river: 4c (pot ~$100)

Hero bet - $72.00
Button raised - $144.00

Push?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is awful. Bet flop, hopefully get raised. If it gets back to you heads up, call and c/r turn. If its three way get it all in on flop.


As you played it, bet pot on turn.

Yes, you're calling all-in on river, you have the overfull, you're winning.

[OneCentRob]

In retrospect, I wished I'd bet the flop, but from observation I was almost certain MP would bet it and I decided to check raise.

Was this a mistake? Should I be betting out regarless in this situation?