AQ facing raise from big stack on bubble (Party $11)

[Superfluous Man]

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What do we loose by doing the stop'n'go?

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When he folds, you lose the extra T690 you would have gotten when he calls preflop and doubles you up.

[Nicholasp27]

u actually want a call here?

i'd want a fold...get the 700 money in the pot and run...

i don't want a coinflip for another 690 chips if i can get 700 free

[Superfluous Man]

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u actually want a call here?

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Yes (unless he has AA-QQ or AK [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

Here's one way of looking at it. If I get the guy to fold, I'm up to T1590 with the other stacks at 911, 1010, and 4489. This means, if (more like when) I steal from one of the two shorties and happen to lose I'm down to less than 3x BB, and I'm effectively 4th with a slight hope of getting into 3rd. On the "bright side," if I get into a confrontation with the big stack and double through, we're only just about tied in chips.

Now, if I double up (and, given the opponent's very wide stealing range, I'm a favorite to do so), I'm suddenly at T2280 with the other stacks at 911, 1010, and 3799. When I steal from the shorties and lose, I'm still over 6x BB, and still in very good position to get 3rd or 2nd. Even better, if I get into another confrontation with the big stack and double through him, I now have more than half the chips in play and can run over the field, maximizing my chances of getting first.

Granted, a stop n go may (and that's a big "may," given the pot odds on the flop) get your opponent to fold a small/medium PP on the flop. So you avoid a coinflip; big deal. But I think a stop 'n' go is also likely (perhaps even more likely) to make him fold hands you dominate. Ax, KQ, or even Qx, could all fold on an ungly flop when they would have called preflop and you would have gotten your chips in as a huge favorite.

The bottom line is that with AQo you have such a big edge against his range that you have to push it preflop. If you lose a coinflip or run into AK or get sucked out on, tough break; you weren't exactly a lock to get ITM anyway.

(Disclaimer: I don't have SNGPT, especially not here at work, but I'd love to see the numbers run with a very loose range for the raiser; intuitively I think I'm right, but SNGPT has spat in the face of my intuition before. Maybe I just like to gambool.)

[tigerite]

You can't run it with SNGPT, it only allows for calling all-ins or going all-in yourself first to act.

[Superfluous Man]

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You can't run it with SNGPT, it only allows for calling all-ins or going all-in yourself first to act.

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Oh, I had no idea. My mistake.

I guess someone could do some sort of ICM stuff by hand, but that would still be pretty nebulous as you'd have to assign call/fold percentages on the stop n go and all that. I still think I'm right, but I am open to someone proving me wrong. Especially by doing some sort of mathematical analysis that I am too lazy to do (hand-waving is so much easier).

[yabastid]

I can't move my slider to the right and click allin fast enough. I would take this everytime in this situation. I definitely don't want villian to fold here. I want him to call my push PF. His range of raising hands is huge. If I get drawn out or he has AA,KK,QQ,AK so be it. Also, most Party 11 players who have a big stack can get ridiculously tight after losing a hand like this. Plus next time you push into the blinds you'll get a lot more respect. Push preflop.

yabastid

[docodan]

AQ offsuit is basically 65% against any two cards. ICM says fold gives you .1871, push, call, & win gives you .2945, and push, call, & lose gives you of course 0. You end up with .1914 for pushing, so it's better than folding...but I don't think it's good enough that you would rather have a call than a fold from the chip leader.

ICM says .2634 for a push that gets a fold. That seems best to me. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]