bottom set on flop

[OneCentRob]

1.5/3 10 handed NL cash game

I'm new to the table and don't have a read on either player in the hand.

SB $159
UTG+1 $450
Hero $300 with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in late position


MP min raises to $6 and 5 players see flop of 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $22
Hero calls, Button folds

SB pushes all in for $153.
UTG + 1 raises to £285

Now what? Any thoughts

[OneCentRob]

I thought this was an interesting hand. Why no replies??

[4_2_it]

With two all-ins I don't feel real good. Can't see anyone chasing a draw so I put one villain on an overpair and the other on a set or overpair. Since set over set is rare I probably close my eyes and call, though if my read on the re-raiser is a rock, then I fold.

[djoyce003]

Man...that is some scary action. I'm thinking this is a time that you may be up against a higher set and a made straight....you are potentially drawing totally dead. The best you can hope for honestly is to be up against a straight and a flush draw. Nobody left in the hand raised preflop so hands like 66 and 99 are likely here....as is 78.

All this being said...not sure i'm folding a set here. You are getting pretty decent odds to hit your full house.

If you are up against the straight and tptk

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1278405
pokenum -h 7h 8h - as 9c - 5h 5c -- 5s 6d 9s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 9s 5s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8h 7h 571 63.23 324 35.88 8 0.89 0.635
As 9c 55 6.09 840 93.02 8 0.89 0.064
5c 5h 269 29.79 626 69.32 8 0.89 0.301

If you are up against another set and a straight

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1278411
pokenum -h 7h 8h - 9h 9c - 5h 5c -- 5s 6d 9s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 9s 5s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8h 7h 640 70.87 254 28.13 9 1.00 0.712
9c 9h 213 23.59 681 75.42 9 1.00 0.239
5c 5h 41 4.54 853 94.46 9 1.00 0.049

if you are up against the straight and a flush draw

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1278413
pokenum -h 7h 8h - as ts - 5h 5c -- 5s 6d 9s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 9s 5s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8h 7h 348 38.54 555 61.46 0 0.00 0.385
As Ts 234 25.91 669 74.09 0 0.00 0.259
5c 5h 321 35.55 582 64.45 0 0.00 0.355

I'd say it's a fairly close call.....you are probably ahead some of the time, and the times you aren't ahead you are probably drawing live more times than you are drawing dead. If you are drawing live you are getting about the right odds to draw.

[OneCentRob]

Good analysis - thanks.

At this point I'm thinking that I am probably up again one drawer and one made hande. The question is, which? SB could check push with either, although his play smells like a BIG hand to me. I'm also slightly puzzled by the re-raise from UTG+1 - the board is so scarey he can make this play with either a draw or made hand. But what is his play more likely to indicate? Remeber he has only min re-raised (albeit for a large chunk of his chips) but not pushed. Would he not push here if he had a better set or straight?

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis - thanks.

At this point I'm thinking that I am probably up again one drawer and one made hande. The question is, which? SB could check push with either, although his play smells like a BIG hand to me. I'm also slightly puzzled by the re-raise from UTG+1 - the board is so scarey he can make this play with either a draw or made hand. But what is his play more likely to indicate? Remeber he has only min re-raised (albeit for a large chunk of his chips) but not pushed. Would he not push here if he had a better set or straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

If your read of UTG+1 is that he would min-raise with AA or KK and his post-flop raise is an attempt to isolate then you should push knowing you are probably a favorite to win a substantial side-pot.

[Geoff48]

[ QUOTE ]
Since set over set is rare I probably close my eyes and call, though if my read on the re-raiser is a rock, then I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had almost the exact situation as the OP come up last week, same board, except a Q rather then a 9, I flopped bottom set. Almost the exact same action. In a situation like this, do you just have to call and accept that set over set happens sometimes? My 1st thought is that bottom set will be good here often enough against over pairs or 2 pairs. My 1st thought when I saw the flop is how can I stack someone, then given the action, I make the crying call figuring I just might be beat. Am I way off? I always thought set over set is rare enough that when it happens you just have to suck it up and move on.

[Raven]

I dont think you have enough information to fold your set on this flop because 2 pairs hands, ovepair and draw are all possible, and you have the odds to chase a straight, so I think you have to call here.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Since set over set is rare I probably close my eyes and call, though if my read on the re-raiser is a rock, then I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had almost the exact situation as the OP come up last week, same board, except a Q rather then a 9, I flopped bottom set. Almost the exact same action. In a situation like this, do you just have to call and accept that set over set happens sometimes? My 1st thought is that bottom set will be good here often enough against over pairs or 2 pairs. My 1st thought when I saw the flop is how can I stack someone, then given the action, I make the crying call figuring I just might be beat. Am I way off? I always thought set over set is rare enough that when it happens you just have to suck it up and move on.

[/ QUOTE ]

With no obvious straight or flush draw I'll be happy to lose my stack set over set. You can't worry about monsters under the bed.

[Aloysius]

If, instead of smooth calling on the flop, OP had raised, would this make the decision any easier?

On this board in an unraised pot I would raise on the flop in OP's position 100% of the time. I am less worried about stacking someone and more concerned with getting my money in when I likely have the best hand.