Odds of flopping a set and catching a set (HE)

[top-spin]

thanks! I've never figured out combinations like that but it really makes sense.. i'll study on it !

ty

[slickpoppa]

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The correct equation for the flop is:

(2/50)*(48/49)*(47/48)*3 = .115, or in terms of odds 7.68:1

If you miss the flop, then for the turn it is 45/47 or 22.5:1

River:
44/46 or 22:1

Turn or River:
(45/47)*(2/46)*2 = .0832 or 11:1

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I don't follow this method, but it seems to diverge slightly from the correct answer:

1 - ((45 / 47) * (44 / 46)) = 0.0841813136

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GM, your answer is incorrect because it includes the probability of hitting quads. It's a good number to know, but technically the OP's question asked about hitting a set, not a set or better.

[gaming_mouse]

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GM, your answer is incorrect because it includes the probability of hitting quads. It's a good number to know, but technically the OP's question asked about hitting a set, not a set or better.

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yeah, technically, but that was intentional. i assumed he meant "at least a set," since that is what you want to know in practice usually.

gm

[slickpoppa]

yeah, well i'm a stickler for the technicalities, lol. Anyway to get my answer like yours i would add:
(45/47)*(2/46)*2 + (2/47)*(1/46) = .08418

I don't understand what is hard to follow about my notation

[gaming_mouse]

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I don't understand what is hard to follow about my notation

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nothing at all. i was just feeling lazy, saw that the 1- method was simpler, and didn't want to think about what you were doing. sorry [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]