Fold a set?

jah0550 · #1 10-05-2004, 04:42 PM

Last night on Party, I ran into a dificult decision. $10+1 9 handed. Hero(745) is in the BB with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Blinds t30. UTG folds, UTG+1(600) calls, 3 folds, MP(890) calls, MP+1 folds, CO(1100) and Button(1650) call, SB completes, Hero checks.
Flop
10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG+1 checks, MP bets 30, CO raises to 60, Button raises to 300. Hero?
I don't have any good reads yet, but with a raise and a reraise, is the low set good enough to move in?

rjb03 · #2 10-05-2004, 04:48 PM

I'd push here. You may see top two pair and someone with the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Sam T. · #3 10-05-2004, 05:09 PM

With the possibility of three opponents, I think you have to assume that a win will require a boat.

Any reason you didn't bet the flop? Putting out t100 is large enough to get out hands that don't have at least the flush draw, and small enough that you can get away from it.

In any case you checked, and we then have to deal with your opponents.

The t30 bet I'm happy to ignore. It looks like a weak effort to steal the pot - it happens all the time. If he were the only opponent, I'd come over the top and see if he meant what he said. If he reraises all-in, you know you're beat.

The min raise, however, is a problem. The only guy who wants to keep the betting alive and juice the pot has a made hand. If this were as far as things went I'd call this and see if I could dock a boat on the turn. (I did this last night in a NL ring game. It was a lovely and profitable hand.)

Then you've got the t300 bet. The problem here is that he didn't push, so I don't think he's got anything as beatable as top pair. Obviously you can't just call this, so you need to make a decision for your chips.

No way you should call.

NotMitch · #4 10-05-2004, 05:34 PM

If you were in the BB why didnt you bet this flop?

viennagreen · #5 10-05-2004, 05:37 PM

i agree that you have to assume that a boat (or better) is required to win.

but i'm not sure whether "no way you should call" is correct.

this is why--- the t300 bettor, he isn't going to fold to an all-in. It makes sense that he has a baby flush, and needs to protect his hand (or possibly, top pair with nut flush draw).

so--- if he is not going to fold, and you are assuming that you need to beat a flush, why would going all-in here help you? All it's going to do is possibly push out your other opponent. I agree that you have to make a decision for all your chips, but you can decide that you're going for all your chips and still call, with the idea that possibly you might improve your pot-odds by not going all-in.

so actually--- i think, with the situation that you're in (by not betting out on the flop), you should either call or fold--- not go all-in, but know that you will not fold on the turn.

i would fold here though... too much action, and since you didn't bet out, you don't have a very good idea of where you're at in the hand.... and it's early in the tourney, and you don't have anything invested in the hand