3/6 jacks pick up set on turn

[jdl22]

Villain in this hand had been laggy for the 2 orbits I saw him.

Pretend like I had more money on the river, would you raise? Flop standard? After the flop action I would be inclined to fold the turn if I didn't either hit a jack or get the OESD with a queen, is that a good plan?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] .
Hero raises, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] , K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

River: (15.16 BB) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls $8 (All-In), BB calls.

Final Pot: 17.83 BB

edit: suits

[Drontier]

i peel with an A or 9 too.

[imported_leader]

-Why raise the flop? Call if he has it you lose less. If he doesn't you gain more.
-river depends how laggy he is. You saw him so you'd have a better idea. Given your read and the action so far, I'd lead toward raise/calling
-Not having enough money to complete the hand is really an inexcusable leak

[Victor]

if you tell me your real name i will give you some bad advice.

[genya]

I would be inclined to call the turn 3-bet and call the river or bet if checked to. AQ is a very strong possibility. If he leads the river after you 3-bet the turn you are very likely behind.
EK

[w_alloy]

I think after you cap preflop and he leads this flop I would call down, betting if checked to. I like raising against people who you can feel comfortable folding if they play back. I don't think this is true for this guy. You are likely w/a w/b on the flop after he leads.

I barely wouldnt raise the river and call a 3 bet. The only hands that beat you ar AK or KQ clubs, AQ, and KK.

KK 3 combos
AQ 16 discounted to 4 for flop bet/3bet
AcKc/KcQc 2 disc to 1.5 for turn 3 bet
Donk factor clubs and random Q: 1
9.5 total

Hands we are ahead of:

TT 3
AA 6 discounted to 4 for river lead
KJ 12 discounted to 3.5, he shouldnt raise preflop or lead river after cap
AK 11 discounted to 2.5, he should slow down on turn/river
KQ 11 discounted to 1, same as above
JJ 1 discounted to .5 for split
Laggy 3/6 donk factor: 4, including 55, KT, and random hands

This give us 18.5.

We need to be ahead twice as often as behind, so this is a very close call without the all in and an easy one with it. I think the turn cap is very easy. I'm sure some will disagree with my discounting. Exactly how laggy he is could sway things one way or the other easily. Also, you dont need to be ahead twice as often on the river he he only 3 bets worse hands. I guess if calling is the best play, it means it is +ev and I should add a bit for that too, but I really think it is close to break-even.

Edit: I changed my opinion after dicounting AA

[jdl22]

[ QUOTE ]
if you tell me your real name i will give you some bad advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

eh? I doubt you know who I am anyway. My nick was jdl22. I started out posting in NL before they were split then got sucked into the OOT vortex. I've only started posting here recently.

I'm only a mod because I feared the magazine forum being overrun by spam as happened before the now not so angry cola came back.

If you were looking for my actual real name it's in my profile: Jared Lunsford. Feel free to figure out how I came up with the current screen name.

[jdl22]

Thank you, this is excellent.

I thought I was likely ahead on the flop given his lagginess, so that's why I raised. Thinking about it more the standard wa/wb line is probably better. That would allow me to be the one in control and on the good end of the reverse implied odds since I have position.

[Victor]

hi jdl,

i like how you played it due to villain being almost allin.