Texas +7 v USC Natl Title Rose Bowl picks/discussion

What could Texas have done this year to not be considered overrated? The only game they did not blow out their opponent was Ohio State, and I doubt there are more than two or three teams that would go into the Shoe and win this year. They have had about the most dominating season possible. It is not their fault the Big 12 was down this year

[MCS]

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I'm surprised you didn't use sagarin to point out Texas is predicted as a better team here with more wins against top 30 teams.

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Sagarin is part of why I think Texas is so good. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

It's possible that Sagarin may break down a bit with teams that are SO dominant, because I don't know exactly how it handles margin of victory.

For one thing, does predictor consider the difference in a 49-point win and a 42-point win to be the same as a 10-point win and a 3-point win? It seems a margin of victory system needs to start having declining returns at some point.

For another thing, when you're winning by so much, whether you win by 56 or 45 is determined somewhat by how much the coach wants to run it up.

All that said, predictor has to be WAY off for this line to be right, and I have enough faith in it that I still think Texas +7 is a good bet. Even if you give USC a small home-field edge.

As an aside, I don't ever recall the top two teams being so head and shoulders above everyone else.

[babigm]

The Matchup, from an admittedly biased Texas fan:

Offense: It's hard to argue against USC having the advantage here, there really isn't much to complain about. We know this already, Leinhart, Bush, White, Jarrett, etc. Texas is no slouch either though, they've actually got a higher pts/game, and are 3rd behind USC and Texas Tech in Yards/game.

The only top 20 defense either has faced has been Ohio State (and Kansas if you go by yards, but I'm not counting them), which Texas struggled against very early in the season. The passing game has been good to both teams and so has the rushing game. Bush and White get the appropriate kudos, but don't underestimate the Texas backs either. Charles was matched stat for stat with Bush until his ankle injury, and the other 3 (!) backs have stepped up with big games as well. There's two competing unpredictible "factors", The Reggie Bush factor and the Vince Young factor. Both of them can make up for other shortcomings in the offense by themselves, so it's hard to see how nitpicking will make much of a difference.

Defense: Texas has the advantage here, but how big an advantage is really up in the air. It depends on which USC defense shows up, the UCLA one or the Fresno St. one, and how much you buy the "Pac-10 defenses look bad because the offenses are so good!" defense. Personally I don't buy it much. Texas' only let down so far has been the A&M rivalry game, and they shut down a potent Texas Tech offense. USC's offense may be good enough that it doesn't matter how good a defense is they'll score anyway, but we don't know that because they haven't faced anyone of that caliber defense yet.

Special Teams: Bush is of course scary as a return man. Texas has had three different people bust a return for a TD, and they lead the league in blocked kicks. USC gets the edge though because Texas' kicking game has been nerve racking, I think they've missed something like 8 extra points.

Coaching: The easy bet is on USC given past performance. USC probably gets the slight edge here, but I think it's closer to even then most people think. Mack Brown has completely revamped himself as a coach this year, and as someone who called for his head after 2001...and 2002...and 2003, it's really amazing how much better the play calling has been this season. They've really opened up the offense and become much less conservative, and the defense has been dominating all year. The knock has been not being able to win the big games, the close games, but since the OU loss they've done nothing but win big games and close games.

Turnovers: I think this is where USC earns the points they're getting. They're number one in turnover margin, while Texas' backs have had a case of fumblitis all year. Vince tends to throw one bad interception, and he loses the ball sometimes due to how he holds the ball on runs (though it's a lot better this year then last). If Texas keeps the turnovers low, or at least keeps the turnovers they make from hurting them too bad, they have a great shot at winning this game. This I think is the factor that will affect the outcome of the game the most overall, everything else is close enough that it could go either way.

[sfwusc]

what is the money line odds? I think UT wins straight up.

SWUSC

[rtrombone]

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My plan is to wait until closer to gametime and then bet USC.

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Young is good for two picks. USC will win fairly easily.

[ZeroGravitas]

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I'm assuming that if both sides lost their best four players, the game would be more level and extrapolating from there.


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If both teams lost their four best players, USC would win by 30.

[lastsamurai]

FYP Texas 6.5 v USC Natl Title Rose Bowl picks/discussion

USC all the way!

[MyTurn2Raise]

yeah...the injury thing I'm worried about is Vince Young. I think that Texas without Vince Young is a top 5 team, but not good enough to beat USC, and possibly not good enough to stay within 2 touchdowns. USC without Bush = more carries for White, passes to Jarrett and Smith, etc. USC without Lienart would hurt about 4 points I think, but still Bush, White, Jarrett, and Smith. so...my wait is over Vince Young.

[thatpfunk]

All,
I think the experience that USC has w/ the natl championship and the media hype machine may play a stronger role than many are predicting. Also the fact that this team has a month to scheme for Texas make me (a biased USC fan) believe that its an easy USC cover.

USC had more than a week to prepare for 3 teams this season: @UH 63-17, v.Arkansas 70-17, v UCLA 66-19. Coincendentally these also happen to be their best defensive performances of the year gving up 10, 7, and 6 in the first half while the games were still semi-competitive.

I'd be interested to see if someone could drag up the info of Pete's D w/ more than 1 week of preparation.

Anywho, I think many are largely ignoring or discounting how big of a factor these two trends will play on the game.

USC is going to cover for sure, they are USC. Not just saying this because I went there and won a National Championship in 2002. USC 49-21