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  #1  
Old 08-18-2005, 03:10 PM
Jim Morgan Jim Morgan is offline
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Default Chasing

Here are some common situations in Limit O8 that I don't know how to handle or know how to simulate.

I hold AsKs3d2c. I raise on the button and get 5 callers for a pot of 6BB. The SB bets the flop and 3 more people call. Here are some sample flops that more or less miss me, but have a lot of backdoor potential....

QhTh6s, QhTc6s, QhTc6d.

My feeling is that with 16:1 odds that calling is corect with each of these hands even though these flops are not
exactly a good fit.

Has anyone attempted to simulate this sort of thing to see if this is correct?

Also, how much does this change if I am in middle position and there are potential raises behind me? In other words, do I have something at least close to 20% pot equity so that raises won't cost me much money.

Similarly, when I have a premium high hand and only catch one card, it seems like taking one off can be right. Suppose I raised with AcQcJdTs and the flop comes with
Jh7c3d. Any turn card 9-K or higher gives me a few outs for a scoop and some give me a huge draw. Even low clubs will probably be OK for me if the betting on the turn remains pasive. My current thinking is that I want to raise preflop with these kinds of hands precisely because I want to have the proper odds to see the turn when I get a flop of this sort. On the same note, how would changing the 7c to the 7s change things?

Jim M
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  #2  
Old 08-18-2005, 04:37 PM
BettyBoopAA BettyBoopAA is offline
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Default Re: Chasing

It's correct to chase (six players in a raised pot) because of all your outs and the chance to scoop, you have backdoor nut lows, backdoor flush and a gutshot for a scoop.

As for second question


Quote
Similarly, when I have a premium high hand and only catch one card, it seems like taking one off can be right. Suppose I raised with AcQcJdTs and the flop comes with
Jh7c3d. Any turn card 9-K or higher gives me a few outs for a scoop and some give me a huge draw. Even low clubs will probably be OK for me if the betting on the turn remains pasive. My current thinking is that I want to raise preflop with these kinds of hands precisely because I want to have the proper odds to see the turn when I get a flop of this sort. On the same note, how would changing the 7c to the 7s change things?

Your idea of raising to see the turn with the correct odds is wrong.
it may be correct to take a card off on the turn with this hand but any low card on the turn, clubs or not is a disaster for your hand, half the pot is gone and you have nothing but top pair and flush draw. You will lose money playing this way.
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  #3  
Old 08-18-2005, 05:09 PM
Jim Morgan Jim Morgan is offline
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Default Re: Chasing

I think we have failed to communicate. I was referring to rasing before the flop as a means of allowing myself to be more likely to have the proper pot odds to CALL on this sort of flop. I was not suggesting raising on these flops,

In very passive crowds I think this is not nearly as weak a play as you suggest. but I suspect that, as you say, it is a money loser in the long run since so many turn cards will give someone a good reason to bet the turn. And more importantly, I may simply get reraised, which would be a disaster.

If however, It is checked to me, I will sometimes bet this kind of flop. (I raised pre-flop AcQcJT and the flop comes Jc7d3s). My opponents "put me on low". and some of them are the sort who would be betting the stronger high hands, so my high pair may not all that bad after all.

Now look what happens after I bet...

If a low card comes, they check to my non-existant nut low. Now I get a free shot at a river that I would not pay to see because I have only a few shbby outs for half a pot. Maybe the turn is an 8 and I river a A, J or 9, all of which are probably going to give me the high fairly often.

If, instead, a high card comes, they may decide to bet out with 2 pair or something, but since most or all of the high cards give me a great draw, I don't mind and I might even want to bet/raise myself. And getting a free card is still quite possible, since even though poeple put me on a low, they tend to check the turn without a high set or a made flush/straight when someone bet the flop. They forget that I am probably looking at another A237 that is quite eager to check this ugly turn. They often check to the better unless they pick up the nuts.

Even if the board pairs, it is not a disaster. Most people in my game will "put me on low" and bet their trips. If it is checked to me, I can bet again with what could easily be the best hand if there were not many callers on the flop.


Jim M
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  #4  
Old 08-18-2005, 06:35 PM
BettyBoopAA BettyBoopAA is offline
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Default Re: Chasing

Hi Jim,
I understood your raising before the flop but I don't like the raise with this hand. Your raise gives people the correct odds to chase as well. This is the kind of hand you want to play cheaply and flop two high cards and make people pay to chase their lows. I have seen passive games turn because of bad preflop raising, what stakes are you playing at.
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  #5  
Old 08-18-2005, 09:38 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: Chasing

[ QUOTE ]
I was referring to rasing before the flop as a means of allowing myself to be more likely to have the proper pot odds to CALL on this sort of flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jim - Why on earth would you want to get yourself stuck in a pot when you have a poor fit with the flop???

All the limpers will probably secretly (or overtly) groan, tentatively put you on A-2-3-X, and toss in another bet. Thus you do give yourself better pot odds for the second betting round by raising before the flop from late position. However, you also give all your opponents better pot odds for the second betting round. In addition, you may not get more from them on the second, third, and fourth betting rounds (despite their slightly better odds) when you do catch a nice fit with the flop yourself.

There are some excellent reasons for raising before the flop, but raising to increase your pot odds on the second betting round is not one of them.

[ QUOTE ]
If however, It is checked to me, I will sometimes bet this kind of flop. (I raised pre-flop AcQcJT and the flop comes Jc7d3s). My opponents "put me on low". and some of them are the sort who would be betting the stronger high hands, so my high pair may not all that bad after all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... yes it is that bad, after all. However, you've made a good point. By raising with a starting hand with which you should limp if indeed you play it at all, you do throw your opponents off the track.

You would be a tough opponent for me to face. I'll give you that. To counter your helter skelter pre-flop raising strategy, I'd probably start largely ignoring your raises, but I'd still keep a suspicious eye on you, carefully watching to see if and when you changed gears. But you'd be tough to face.

AcQcJT is not a premium high hand in Omaha-8. And when the flop is Jc7d3s, you missed a decent fit with it. Period.

And you seem to recognize that fact when you write, "I have only a few shbby outs for half a pot."

For that particular flop you want A2XY or JJXY. (Something like QT98 would be all right too, but you shouldn't be voluntarily playing middle-card-crap like QT98 (even if double suited) in a limit-Omaha-8 game).

Are you going to play AcQcJT for probably half the pot after you, yourself, recognize you missed the flop? I don't care if you cost yourself two bets on the first betting round or not. It's time to dump that hand.

I think there are places to bluff in this game, but I don't think this is a good spot to try.

[ QUOTE ]
Now look what happens after I bet...

If a low card comes, they check to my non-existant nut low.

[/ QUOTE ]

Baloney. Holding either A2XY or A4XY after this flop, I'm betting straight into you, just to see what you'll do. (I'm more likely to hold A2XY than A4XY). I have opponents who will bet into you with less than that.

[ QUOTE ]
Now I get a free shot at a river

[/ QUOTE ]

Dream on.

[ QUOTE ]
that I would not pay to see because I have only a few shbby outs for half a pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's good for you that you recognize that.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe the turn is an 8 and I river a A, J or 9, all of which are probably going to give me the high fairly often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, granted there are some ways you can win high and even scoop - especially if you catch runner-runner. Or your pair of jacks might hold up for a scooper. But that all seems kind of far fetched to me. Sure, it's possible - but I think it would be a mistake to play for it.

But I don't think it's a bad idea to raise before the flop sometimes with a hand that probably shouldn't raise. Good advertising - and tough to play against!

Just my opinion.

Buzz
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  #6  
Old 08-18-2005, 10:14 PM
Ribbo Ribbo is offline
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Default Re: Chasing

You would not believe how much money people lose "peeling one off" to a runner runner low. There is a reason we call it "missing the flop".
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  #7  
Old 08-19-2005, 05:11 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: Chasing

[ QUOTE ]
My feeling is that with 16:1 odds that calling is corect with each of these hands even though these flops are not exactly a good fit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jim - But it’s not just costing you one bet! Assuming no more raises, roughly it’s costing you one bet one third of the time (because you'll fold to 15 cards on the turn), but it’s costing you three bets another third of the time (because you'll fold to 15 or so more cards on the river) - and five bets the last third of the time. (That's admittedly a very approximate way to look at it).

However, assuming no more raising, by golly you’re right that you will have favorable odds to call one small bet on the second betting round, holding AsKs3d2c after a flop of QhTh6s! And the other two flops are even better for your hand!!

(You may want to be on the button to limp holding AsKs3d2c after a flop of QhTh6s.)

Looking at it from a defensive point of view, you should see that it’s important to bet and raise a flop of QhTh6s (assuming you have a nice fit) after a pre-flop raise just so as not to allow the pre-flop raiser favorable odds to limp after the flop with a poor fit. And without the pre-flop raise, by betting and raising this flop, you give your opponents even worse odds to limp!

If your opponents are playing correctly, and if they put you on A-2-3-X for your late position pre-flop raise, you’ll be looking at a double bet after this flop - and then you won’t have favorable odds to limp. But if they make a mistake and don’t raise after this flop, then, yes, you should take advantage of their mistake by limping yourself.

It’s not exactly the runner-runner low and flush draws that make the favorable odds for you. Three jacks don’t make the flush but do make you a straight. The runner-runner flush draw is approximately worth the same as each jack (one out). It’s more complicated than just that - bunch of different values for different drawing cards.

At any rate, yes, for the bargain price of one small bet, although your pot odds are not really 16 to 1, I think (figure) you do have favorable odds to draw. Just how favorable depends on how many of your opponents will continue to play. But they’re surely favorable.

Just my opinion.

Buzz
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  #8  
Old 08-19-2005, 04:03 PM
Jim Morgan Jim Morgan is offline
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Default Re: Chasing

[ QUOTE ]

Jim - But it’s not just costing you one bet!


[/ QUOTE ]


The problem you speak of only shows up when I catch an offsuit 9 or a low club. This is a total of 8 cards.
Now I will have pot odds to draw, but my pot equity will be below average. Cards like the Kc, Tc and the two jacks will give me more than my fair share of pot equity.

I will fold on 21 turn cards, be forced to call while still below break-even pot equity on 8 cards, and be at break-even or better with the remaining 16. In those cases the turn bets are not important or may even add to my stack.

The situation you speak of is important in cases where BOTH cards will require you to chase. Note that chasing has NOTHING to do with the current best hand. Chasing simply means that you are calling a bet when your pot equity is below average. If your pot equity is average or better, you are no longer chansing even if you don't have a pair yet.


[ QUOTE ]

Looking at it from a defensive point of view, you should see that it’s important to bet and raise a flop of QhTh6s


[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. And I am amazed how rarely other players work this out. This sort of thing comes up A LOT in Omaha. Low hands must also do this to drive out mediocre high hands


[ QUOTE ]

The runner-runner flush draw is approximately worth the same as each jack (one out). It’s more complicated than just that - bunch of different values for different drawing cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

... holding AsKs3d2c....
Yeah, because turning a jack is not as great as it seems. You may tie for high and the riveer can flush or pair the board to destroy the hand. I consider the three jacks to be worth only a bit more than the backdoor flush. I am guessing that the backdoor low with protection give you roughly 8% pot equity by itself. A backdoor nut flush probably adds another 3% and the gutshot Jacks probably adds another 6%. And yes, these number are just guesses.

Jim M
Jim
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