Low pocket pair all in?

[three1ne]

B&M Rebuy £20+2. Rebuys have ended. About 1 hour into the freezeout stage. Ive only topped up, no rebuys.

Blinds 200/400. Chip leader around 15-20k. Chip leader on my table 10k

My stack is 4500

Its folded to me in MP with 77. I make it 1600 to go.
Folded to SB who takes one look at his cards and raises all in for 6k. Ive only just sat down and do not have a good read on anyone, although ive seen this guy take a few risks on other nights.

BB folds.

Back to me. I figure hes on a decent A or 99. 99 had been stuck together all night.

Considering my (slightly over the top raise) should I call here without much consideration or can I pass?

I really would like some feedback as this is where I tend to trip up in mtts.

[hurlyburly]

I really think you'd regret calling here. There just isn't much he can have that you'll be happy to see.

If you're going to use an actual hand for a steal, then reduce your raises. 1k-1150 accomplishes the same thing, leaves you enough behind for some post-flop play, or lets you conserve some chips if you get re-popped and need to fold.

[transmitt]

your getting less than 2:1 and are a slight favorite or a huge dog, I guess I regretfully fold. Think you commited yourself a bit with the 4x raise, was that the standard? How did the hand play out?

[three1ne]

I folded and he turned over A10. We Rabitted and I would have won, a nice 7 turn to rub it in, but it was 50/50 at best before I saw his cards. I consider it a good fold although I think I should have called considering I slipped up with the amount of the raise.

[TheDrone]

TT+ or AK is the minimum I would need to make this call. I've seen this move quite a bit with mid pockets and AQ/AK, but the size of your raise makes the all-in reraise a likely move with JJ-AA too. Good fold.

[Eihli]

Is your stack too big to just push preflop? Any raise will leave crippled considering you can't call a re-raise, and it's too strong a hand to fold.

[three1ne]

It left me with just over 2k which i felt was enough, providing I hit a few hands, I can get paid off. The play here is so poor. I cant see how someone could raise all in with A10 after a big reraise.

Next time ill probably call, everytime in these small rebuy tournaments some amatuer is a massive chips leader. Im always struggling as I play sensibly. Although I accept that my play on tournament rebuys is low.

[schwza]

3400 in dead money and you have to call 2900 more?

suppose his range is AQ, AK, 88+. then there are 16x2 = 32 hands you're 55%. 7x6 = 42 that you're 20%. that's roughly 35%. you need less than 33% b/c there's more dead money than the bet is to you. add in the fact villain might push AJ or below (such as AT), and it's a call.

[ QUOTE ]
99 had been stuck together all night.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very important piece of information and it's good you included it.

[three1ne]

Thanks for the reply schwza.

Would it be possible to explain your calculations? I do not understand where all the figures are coming from.

[schwza]

sure thing.

3400 in dead money and you have to call 2900 more?

a very useful rule of thumb is that if you have to call a pot-sized all-in, you need to win 33%. when you're figuring out what the pot is, count villain's bets up to what you've put in, but not the extra that you have to call (his 1600, your 1600, and the 200 SB = 3400). you have to call 2900, so you have to win a little under 33%. (actually it's 2900 / [2900+2900+3400] = 31.5%).

suppose his range is AQ, AK, 88+. then there are 16x2 = 32 hands you're 55%.

16 ways to be dealt either AQ or AK. you're ~55% to win against either.

7x6 = 42 that you're 20%.

7 bigger pairs, 6 ways to deal each, and you're about 20% to win.

that's roughly 35%.

rough guess of (42*.20 + 32 * .55) / (42 + 32). wow, i guessed well - it's 35.1%.

you need less than 33% b/c there's more dead money than the bet is to you.

i described this above.

add in the fact villain might push AJ or below (such as AT), and it's a call.

the only way it's not a call is if i'm wrong to assume that villain pushes AQ/AK here.