Question for krishan re: "running good/bad" theory

[Guy McSucker]

Krishan developed a theory about running good/bad based on the number of straights, flushes and full houses one receives in this thread.

I never quite understood what numbers I was supposed to look at.

Is it this: PokerTracker Misc Stats, in the went to SD column and the W$SD column?

Krishan reckons we get one of each premium (straight, flush, house) in 170 hands, so for my current 34k database I should have taken 200 of each to showdown and won around 80% - is that right?

I only have around 150 of each...

Guy.

[sthief09]

I don't buy it. how you do with these hands is what matters. when I get a hot run of cards, I'll sometimes get a lot of those hands busted and lose a ton of money.

[J.R.]

or get a bunch of big hands and not have anyone give you action

[MarkD]

Or both.

[Surfbullet]

I liked Krishan's analysis, but I think there are a number of holes in it in terms of proving one is running good or bad.

The effect of a handful of extra premiums is often drowned out by 5% more or less 1 pair hands winning at showdown - simply because the difference in $ won between premiums + 1 pair hands is not great, but the number of 1 pair hands is enormous compared to premiums.

Everyone plays full houses pretty well. The real money is won and lost in the marginal situations - taking the correct A-highs and bottom pairs to showdown, and knowing when to fold top pair, etc. There is far more to be inferred from the amount + quality of 1 pair hands at showdown than premiums IMHO.

Surf

[Lost Wages]

I agree. Also important is what % of the time your draws are being completed. You can be making the "correct" number of flushes but flopping more draws than you should and thus be running bad. Missing solid draws is very expensive.

Lost Wages

[Rudis]

The most annoying is raising 75s MP getting to SD cheap.
Then getting AA and everyone folds...
Way to go lagging up...=)

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
or get a bunch of big hands and not have anyone give you action

[/ QUOTE ]

or get the big hands, and lose the big pots when you DO get action

[Justin A]

Isn't how AA and KK perform usually a pretty good indicator of how well you've been running?

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't how AA and KK perform usually a pretty good indicator of how well you've been running?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ehh...My AKs was 0% W$SD and my AQs was 13% W$SD over my last 5k hands but I was still running extremely well, so I'm fairly sure just looking at AA/KK isn't that strong of an indicator.