A common situation.......

[Grisgra]

I misread Cart's original post . . . I agree with you JR that we probably have more than 3 outs, as 2-pair without a K is his most likely hand (giving us 8 outs). So it's a mix of 8 outs (e.g., bottom two pair), 3 outs (he has 2-pair with a king) and 0 outs (set).

[baronzeus]

I've been working on folding these in certain situations. I was at a table with 3 fish and a semi-laggy player, and every time one of the fish raised me on the turn when I had a marginal hand (like TP) they would show me their hand and had me beat. Then the semi-laggy player did it to me on the turn when I had A high in a protected pot...I just couldn't call it...and he showed (and won) the protected pot with Q high.

Do you ever worry of people catching on to this if you fold too much? I think I'm gonna try to mix it up a bit here and see how it goes.

[sthief09]

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so you're effectively getting 13-1 assuming an A or K wins it. I know that's not a safe assumption but I'm just doing a quick and dirty estimate

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I think that's the case only if you fold the river for one bet if you don't hit an A or K -- which I absolutely think you can do against some players, as big as the pot is.

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no, that's calling down. you're getting 4.5-1 to call down and river him 11% of the time. you only ahve to win the difference between the two which I think works out to 13-1

[cartman]

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well you subtract your suckout odds from your effective odds. 8-1 on the turn yields 9-2 or 4.5-1 effective odds.

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I think I am missing something. Can you explain in more detail what these numbers are or how you arrive at them? It looks to me as though, after his turn CR, the pot contains 6.2 big bets. If we assume that an A or K will make us a winner and that we will win one big bet on the river, it looks like our effective odds are 7.2 to 1 if we are planning on folding unimproved and 7.2 to 2 if we are going to call down unimproved.


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then your suckout odds are about 8-1.

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Does this mean because you have 5 outs you need 8-1? I don't know what you are calling "suckout odds"


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so you're effectively getting 13-1 assuming an A or K wins it

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Did you get 13-1 by adding 8-1 and 4.5-1?


Thanks,
Cartman

[sthief09]

oh I wasn't looking at the exact hand. I thought someone said it was 8-1.

ok here we go:

1. 6.2-1 immeditate odds. 7.2-2 to call down like you said. so he has to win at showdown 2/9.2 ~ 22% of the time
2. if he has 5 outs (which we'll assume are clean and ignore implied odds and hidden outs for now). he's about 8-1 (5/46) to hit those. so ~11% of the time he'll river this guy.
3. if he has to win 22% of the time, and he'll win via the river card 11% of the time, then he has to have the best hand the other 11% (22-11) of the time.
4. his opponent will suck out some portion of the time, but on this board in this situation it's unlikely he has that many outs. if he's bluffing he has none and if he's semibluffing he probably has an average of 6. if he has top pair he has 3. so we'll say he has 4 outs. so tack on 4/46 to the 11% we need to be ahead and we see we need to have the best hand right now ~20% of the time.

I forgot to tack on the chances his opponent will catch up in my last post, which led to a misleading number

[cartman]

"I see," said the blind man. Thanks for clearing it up.

Cartman

[Guy McSucker]

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his opponent will suck out some portion of the time, but on this board in this situation it's unlikely he has that many outs. if he's bluffing he has none and if he's semibluffing he probably has an average of 6. if he has top pair he has 3. so we'll say he has 4 outs. so tack on 4/46 to the 11% we need to be ahead and we see we need to have the best hand right now ~20% of the time.


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I don't think you want to add those %ages together.

To win by being ahead, we need to

be ahead (x%) AND not get sucked out on (42/46 = what? about 92%?)

So we want 0.92x > 11 so we need to be ahead about 12% or something.

Obviously this arithmetic is all rough and done in my head. I'm too lazy to get the calculator up.

Guy.

[Bluffoon]

Great post. This feels close and the analysis shows it is close. You probably only need to be ahead 15% of the time to call down here. I think the chances this raise is a bluff or semi-bluff are better if the raiser has position (which is not the case here) but that may be offset somewhat by being able to get a free showdown once in a while when you have position. I prefer to call these close decisions down but I could see making an argument for folding with position, the reasoning being the chances of a semi-bluff free showdown type of play are diminished.

[Rudis]

What about table impression?
Is it safe to start folding to raises here?
Is it that bad to show AK in the SD to his 86s?