Anyone have Exact Chip Counts of the Raymer vs. Kanter hand?

[DesertCat]

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My point is that this late in the tournament, after having outlasted 6k people, you don't NEED to make this play. You don't NEED to put yourself in a position to get outdrawn. Why even take that chance?


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If there were 25 players left, Greg's stack was below par (average would have been 2.3M, assuming Greg had 2.1M at the start of the hand). In an equal field, his odds were 25-1. But let's say he's 20% better than the field (which is my memory of what he thought at that point), such that he was only 20-1.

Increasing his stack to 2.7M makes him 15.6-1 (with same 20% "skill" advantage) or 6% to win. Increasing his stack to 4.2M would make him 9.6-1, or 10.4% to win.

So look at is as he took an 82% likely gamble that if he won, meant he could win 73% more often.

Of course I'm oversimplifying in your favor. Pushing on the turn is a disaster if his opponent has a made straight or set, so there is no 100% Kantor folds scenario. Playing the hand the way Greg did ensured that while he still lost the same to made hands, he won much more from bluffs and from charging for draws. Pushing just ensures you lose the max and win the minimum.