95 suited

[bruce]

30-60 holdem. Four limpers and the small blind calls. I get a free play with 95s in the big blind. I don't know
much about any of the players but the game is pretty loose.

Flop comes 2h 3s 4c (I have two spades)

I bet and UTG raises and the button and small blind both
call.

Turn brings 9 2 3 4 (rainbow)

I bet and UTG raises and everyone folds. At this point
I wonder if my opponent flopped a set. Even though he was
relatively unknown to me he did not appear like the type
to limp in with a 56s. I felt like I was drawing live and
not to split the pot so I called.

River 9 9 2 3 4

How do you proceed now? If you put your player on a set
then obviously the nine doesn't help your hand except for
making it appear better.

Comments appreciated.

Bruce

[34TheTruth34]

If the game is loose passive, I suppose he could have limped in with 22,33,44, or A5s, but most likely I would think he has a middle-high pair that you drew out on either on the turn or river. I say bet the river because he probably has 77-TT.

[haakee]

Bet and call a raise. Wouldn't he play a medium-sized overpair the same way?

[elysium]

hi bruce
you could get fancy but either bet or check call. i like betting because you would call a bet anyway.

[Rick Nebiolo]

bruce,

You are getting 12 to 1 for god sakes. Yeah a set is very possible but the other possibilites that you beat surely exceed 10% or so. For example your opponent could hold a medium overpair such as TT (they don't always come in with a raise with this hand) or how about an A4s overplaying a bit?

I'd check-call and even if I lost to a set and rethought that the chances I was against a set that rivered a full were more like 95% then it would still only be a fraction of a bet mistake.

Because you never put in the last raise on the flop or turn, I don't think a lead bet has any chance of getting a small full or straight to fold.

Regards,

Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

The likelihood of a set is somewhat reduced because your opponent raised the flop with others left to act and a very small board. Many players will wait till the turn figuring such a low flop isn't too likely to hit anyone.

I can't see value betting as some others have suggested. You are still likely against a set so when you get called you will lose more often than not. And better hands won't fold.

~ Rick

[King_J]

I am not an experienced high limit player at all. So maybe im way off. But I think UTG has AA and I think a check-raise is the correct move and maybe fold to a 3-bet.

[pilchard]

You are clearly going to call a river bet. There are far too many hands he could have been betting that you have just leap frogged as a result of the river card.

The question is whether you now have a hand that merits aggressive action on the river. If you check, the following will happen:

1) he checks - so you've missed out on a bet on the river when he checks behind. There is no way he is checking a hand that beats yours.

2) he bets - you call. You may have won, you may have lost. However, if the player is overaggressive you may have given him the opportunity to bluff a draw that has not got there.

3) he bets - you raise. Does a hand that you can beat call? Does a reraise mean that you are beaten? The hands beating you at this time are 22, 33, 44, A5, 56, (x9 virtually impossible). Everything depends on the opponent. In most of the games I play I would not limp in UTG with any of those hands. However, if the table conditions are pretty stable (loose passive) there may be value in limping in with low pairs. If I was UTG my most likely hands are pocket pairs 5up. However, if I was to check raise I would want to be certain I can fold to a 3 bet.

So if aggressive action is warranted, why not bet?

1)he folds - unlikely and he is definitely not going to fold a better hand

2) he calls - there are a lot of hands he will call with. You will win nearly everytime here as he is raising with a boat or a straight (although a passive player may get nervous with A5 now the board has paired).

3) he raises - the problem here is that there are worse hands than yours he may raise the river with as well as the hands that are better than yours. You were in the BB. You could have 23, 34, 24 and if he has a pocket pair he may think that the 9 has actually helped him. I think you still have to call a river raise and so you could cost yourself two bets.

One other issue is what he makes of your turn lead. What does this mean when you do this? You did not three bet the flop but led the turn. Does this mean that the turn card helped you? You got a free ride in the BB and so you could have any two cards. He may check a pocket pair on the river fearing the 9. His raise on the turn may be a free showdown raise with a mid pair. I'd make this move with 55 or 66 especially.

My instinct says bet and call a raise although it is close. Just make sure you do not check fold.

[elysium]

hi rick
i think a bet on the river is correct here because there are many weaker hands that will call. now whether a stronger hand will fold, i don't think so. but that's not the issue. weaker hands will call and he would call a bet if he checked and the opponent bet. also notice that if he checcks and his opponent checks it down, he likely wins the hand.

[anatta]

Possible hands include:
Hand that beat you:
1. A5s for flopped str8
2. 22, 33, 44 for a set.
3. If you allow for #2, I think 65s usually can be considered as well.

Hand you beat:
1. Medium pairs: 55, 66, 77, 88, TT.
2. Big pair which he chose not to raise with BTF.
3. A4s for top pair and a gutter.

I hope you weren't considering checking and folding! I think its close between betting out and checking and calling, meaning it doesn't make much difference. You probably will get raised if you are beaten which you should probably call, but I think you are ahead more often then not. He may continue to bet on the end with a hand that you beat.

I really think he has a medium to big pocket pair which he is playing aggressively post-flop. He probably calls this on the end, but may not bet most of these. I would go ahead and bet, but checking and calling seems reasonable.