Hmm overcards are simple right?

slavic · #1 07-09-2005, 07:41 PM

I'm debating the turn here, I think I've decided that it really doesn't matter, fold or call. Thoughts? The two flush could make this a fold, but then again nobody shows they have one.

BTW, the Lag is a known Lag but I don't know his 3 betting standards well, he doesn't do it a ton but it's safe to say they are likely quite a bit tighter than his normal raises.

My image is tight preflop, aggressive post flop, but I've been caught showing 2 ugly dog hands lately.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 :#A500AF(Unknown)/ calls, 2 folds, SB :#A500AF(Laggy)/ 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP2 :#A500AF(Unknown)/ calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Laggy bets, Hero calls, Unknown calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Laggy checks, Hero checks, Unknown bets, Laggy calls, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Laggy checks, Hero checks, Unknown checks.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

bungyrocks · #2 07-09-2005, 07:52 PM

I think its ok to call the flop, but I am folding the turn UI here.

Harv72b · #3 07-09-2005, 08:13 PM

If I'm staying in the hand to even see the turn, I'm raising the flop. I want to get that unknown out of the hand, as well as to see how Laggy reacts to a raise. Normally, though, I'd just give Laggy credit for at least a better ace than AJ and fold.

I don't like overcalling the turn, either. The unknown's play looks a lot like a medium PP, meaning that even if Laggy 3-bet you with KQs or A9 or something, you're still drawing to at most 6 outs & getting only 8.5:1 to do so. Factor in the strong possibility that you're up against a bigger ace and the potential flush draw affecting two of your outs, and I just don't think it's worth continuing in a 3-way pot.

slavic · #4 07-09-2005, 08:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think its ok to call the flop, but I am folding the turn UI here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the SB bet out I would have been gone, but the action as it happened was probably the only way that I would have stayed and I still think it's razor thin leaning to a loser depending on how likely my hand is to be dominated.

slavic · #5 07-09-2005, 08:29 PM

6 outs & getting only 8.5:1

6 --> 6.66:1
5 outs --> 8.2:1
4.5 outs --> 9.22 : 1

The question thus for a call is how likely am I to be dominated? I agree that raising hte flop may be best in general but I have an image problem.

Derek132260 · #6 07-09-2005, 08:31 PM

Wouldn't this be a time to fold? I mean, assuming either player has anything at all, you're drawing to 6 outs if you're lucky. Maybe you can value those at 4 outs (in which case you're 10.5-to-1). Getting 8.5-to-1 on your turn call, this seems like a pretty clear fold to me.

Am I undervaluing your outs?

Harv72b · #7 07-09-2005, 08:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
at most 6 outs & getting only 8.5:1

6 --> 6.66:1
5 outs --> 8.2:1
4.5 outs --> 9.22 : 1

[/ QUOTE ]

You left off the most important part of the sentence. If you could guarantee that you have 6 good outs it's an easy & correct call, but you not only cannot do that, you cannot accurately gauge which (if any) of your outs actually are good. It's very possible that you're drawing to only 3 outs vs. an underpair & AK/AQ, 2 outs vs. a flush draw + stronger A, or zero outs vs. a slowplayed flopped set or JT + stronger A.

Just like you need to be even more certain of your chances of winning a multiway pot before overcalling on the river, you have to be more confident in your outs before overcalling the turn with nothing more than overcards. This is especially true in instances like this one where you cannot be confident enough in any of your outs to make up in implied odds what you may be lacking immediately.

JinX11 · #8 07-09-2005, 09:01 PM

I like a turn fold here.... I don't value your overcards very much; pot is smallish.

caseycjc · #9 07-09-2005, 09:22 PM

Easy fold for me. I don't see the outs. What are they, 2 running Jacks? Maybe I'm putting my oponents on too big a hands but the chance of suited cards for the smooth caller are pretty good (as well as a small/medium pair as you said along with the chance of being dominated by laggy puts me outta there.

slavic · #10 07-09-2005, 10:21 PM

You left off the most important part of the sentence. If you could guarantee that you have 6 good outs it's an easy & correct call, but you not only cannot do that, you cannot accurately gauge which (if any) of your outs actually are good. It's very possible that you're drawing to only 3 outs vs. an underpair & AK/AQ, 2 outs vs. a flush draw + stronger A, or zero outs vs. a slowplayed flopped set or JT + stronger A.

You are absolutly correct that I can't determine my true outs. Thus we need to come up with a way to give a general estimate of outs in most situations. We will never know how many outs we actually have at any one time, but we can make reasonable aproximations.

So we have a player than 3 bet who sees 60% of flops and raises 25% of hands, plus an unkonown cold caller. A reasonable estimation is somewere between 3 & 6 outs, so were do we assign it? Against reasonable players I place it around 4, here we have unreasonable players, and not to the tight side, so what is a fair estimant?

As noted this stuff is not stuff you do in the 1.5 seconds it normally takes me to act in turn. I did a quick eyeball figured it was close, just because of the players and called.

Do I think it's wrong to fold, nope. Do I think it's wrong to call, possibly, I certainly lean that way, plus I tend to post hands I think I botched.

BTW The results suprised me.