Steal attempt meets interesting flop... Call?

[MSUcougar]

From last night's Stars $10 rebuy. It was my first time playing the tourney. I forgot to copy the HH but remember the details...

I have 25,000 chips with blinds 400/800 a50. There are approx 350 left. I am on a tight table, and have been easily stealing with 2.5BB raises in position even with the antes.

It has been at least an orbit since I played a hand. I get 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the CO and raise to 2000. I have stolen on this particular villain a couple times and taken the blinds, although he reraised me once when he was the button and I folded. He seems to be a reasonably solid player.

Villain has 35,000 and calls my raise. There are now ~5000 chips in the pot.

Flop comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain bets out 3000 chips. I think and raise to 8000. Villain instantly pushes.

I have ~15,000 chips behind.

Call or fold? What hand range do you put villain on to not only call my steal raise (not reraise), but play this flop this way?

EDIT: oh and in case it matters, I am playing for final table. I am not interested in sneaking into the money...

My analysis in white:
<font color="white">I think villain reraises me PF with AA-99, AK-AQ, so I put him on 88-22, AK-AT, KQ-KT etc although potentially any 2. On the flop, I think villain plays A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] this way, a vulnerable made flush this way, and a PP or pair with or without a club this way. Although I have odds to call here, I am still ok if I decide to fold...</font>

[ansky451]

Getting 2.4-1 I stick it in there. Its unlikely, but you may have the best hand, and even if you don't, unless you're up against a higher pair + higher flush draw, or a made higher flush, you are getting odds to suckout. Even if he has a set, its close, but its a call I think.

[MSUcougar]

kinda hoping for more than one reply...

edit: what about my flop raise? better to call or even fold here?

[nath]

Toughie.
I think if you are going to raise the flop you have to raise a little more. A raise should be enough to show him you're serious about playing this hand-- as is, it looks like you are setting yourself up to be able to fold with a healthy amount of chips.

If you just want to call and re-evaluate on the turn, that's cool too.

I'd like to think I go ahead and call, since I'm getting substantial odds and may have the best hand (or a draw to one). Of course, after the fact it's much easier to say.

I played a similar hand recently and ended up folding. Still not sure about my decision. I think the major concern is this: does he have you beat both ways? (i.e. a higher pocket pair or a 9 that outkicks yours as well as a better flush draw). I think probably not, but only because there aren't too many hands like that that I think play like this. (Ac9x and Kc9x are the most likely, I'd say.)

If you have the pair you're ahead and it's a good call. If you have the flush draw, you are better than 2.4 to 1 to make it (as well as a two pair or trips that might win), so call.
Outside chance he has a made flush, but it's pretty rare.

[MSUcougar]

thanks for the reply... I did call, so I know what he had, but I'm really itching for some more opinions/analysis on what I thought was a pretty interesting hand...

[IHateKeithSmart]

Hmm, I am thinking it's decently possible has a set or a bigger club draw. I'd think a made flush would c/r, but maybe a bet out got it done here so who knows.

It is an interesting flop, but I am leaning toward a fold, as I think you may be drawing quite thin.

[bweiser8311962]

do you really want to go broke with top pair/7 kicker or with the 7th-best flush redraw? i don't. you made a play at the pot and got played back at. type in nice bluff and move on (though I suspect he has you beat).

[TheJackal]

I'd wait for the turn to raise, I don't like the flop raise, you're building a big pot with a hand that is pretty weak. You have to call if he pushes, and you are best a slight favorite. At least on the turn, if he has misses his flush draw + overcard hand (if that's your read), you can put your money in with the best hand. You can also fold on the turn without taking a huge hit to your stack.

[lennytheduck]

K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Kx. This is a fold in my opinion. There is a great chance your pair is no good without your redraw being live either. You have enough chips left that you can fight back. Risking elimination when you are almost assured you are crushed is never a sound idea, no matter what postion it may put you in among the chip leaders.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
K Kx. This is a fold in my opinion. There is a great chance your pair is no good without your redraw being live either. You have enough chips left that you can fight back. Risking elimination when you are almost assured you are crushed is never a sound idea, no matter what postion it may put you in among the chip leaders.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you be "sure" you are crushed?

He is getting 2.4-1 so even if he is "crushed" a good % of the time, it is close given the villains range. Do you really think Ac Xx is impossible? Folding here is way weak tight in my opinion.