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  #11  
Old 12-20-2005, 02:04 PM
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

I have been cheated at the links from several sportsbooks. I have only gotten the log files and crunched the numbers twice. They both verified conclusively what I felt was happening instinctively. Personally I wouldn't give the "certification" by well known auditing firms any credibility whatsoever. It's not about how random the number generator is. And it's not about the advertised payout rates. It's about the source code of the black jack program. And this is NOT what is audited. And I can promise you that the list on wizardofodds is crap. That list and any other you will find are not evaluating on the proper criteria. Most likely criteria for being on the list is payola, pure and simple.

Look, the bottom line is that there is VERY credible evidence that cheating is going on. How widespread it is is perhaps debateable. But you have no way of being sure, I don't care what "audit certification" or supposedly "independent" evaluation you might have. The chance that you are not being dealt an honest game is far too great to risk. You may very well be ok at small stakes, but a different program comes into play at higher stakes. I don't know this but it makes sense to me. But I am sure I am on very solid ground to warn against online blackjack.
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  #12  
Old 12-20-2005, 02:23 PM
playersare playersare is offline
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

why would you raise your stakes playing blackjack online in the first place? unless you're clearing a bonus, the entire thing is guaranteed -EV since virtually all sites will shuffle after each hand regardless of number of decks used. at best you might get penetration around 10-20% which is useless to ramp bets with.

playing blackjack online to clear bonuses is perfectly fine.
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  #13  
Old 12-20-2005, 02:30 PM
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

Very true. But with a house edge of only 0.4% site owner is still exposed to significant short term risk. It would appear that many need to bump that edge up just a bit... But you're right, this only adds to the already compelling reasons to not play online. But some of us "action junkies" just can't help ourselves.... I just hope the risk of being cheated - on top of the slight house edge - will be enough to put anyone else off giving it a shot "just for the hell of it".
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  #14  
Old 12-20-2005, 02:38 PM
playersare playersare is offline
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

as long as the bonus is +EV for me, why should I care how other people play? if anything, the stupider other players are (rigged or not rigged...whatever), the more willing the site owners are willing to keep the good deals around for those that do know what they are doing. same thing goes for comps and favorable rules in real B&M casinos.

if you stick to the major, downloadable software platforms like Crypto, Microgaming, Playtech, IGM, Boss and such, I don't see how there would ever be any problems and/or suspicions.
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  #15  
Old 12-20-2005, 03:07 PM
Scott_Baio Scott_Baio is offline
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

[ QUOTE ]
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE do not play blackjack online. Most - if not all - programs are programmed to cheat you. This is not speculation on my part. I have statistically analyzed log files and proven conclusively that you do not get a fair deal. Most likely way of cheating is for dealer to "try again" when he gets a card that would bust him. I can't be any more specific because I am not privy to the source code or their providers. But I am a very good blackjack player. I play basic strategy perfectly - and I do know how to modify according to the rules offered. I am also a reasonably proficient number cruncher, able to figure the number of standard deviations away from the expected value that a particular set of results was. Please trust me on this. You do not get a fair game of blackjack online. (Maybe there are some fair and some not, but definitely some - and I strongly think most - will not deal a fair game).

[/ QUOTE ]

thank you sir, I just got a new quote for my aim profile
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  #16  
Old 12-20-2005, 03:22 PM
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

Maybe the downloadables are honest.... Never played BJ that way.

How others play is not the point. Point is that site owners want more of a "sure thing" than the measly .4% they will grind out against perfect basic strategy players. Their primary business is not BJ, and they don't want to get clobbered (which they sometimes would if they offered an honest game at high stakes). They're apparently not worried about losing customers as they only offer it as a 'side light' anyway. The rigged program protects them well and also increases their profitability. Also makes it less of a certainty that you actually are +EV even with the bonus...
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  #17  
Old 12-20-2005, 03:56 PM
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

Links? Data?
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  #18  
Old 12-21-2005, 11:04 AM
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

Can you report the null hypotheses and tests you used and the obtained p-values?
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  #19  
Old 12-21-2005, 12:11 PM
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

Ok, I'll try to dig up some data. It wasn't real easy, and I'm no math whiz. I think what I tested for was the number of times that the dealer's hole card was 10 when he had A or 10 showing. The number of hands was in the 600 to 700 range. The number of times that he had a A up and 10 up was just about right. But the number of times that 10 turned into 20 (with only 1 addl card) and A turned into BJ was way off. I remember I had to search a while on the web to get the correct math for the std deviation calculation, but I did. In the end the number of times the dealer hole card was 10 (when A or 10 was showing) was well over 2 std deviations away from EV. I then repeated the test at another site using a different interface and found the same anomaly. The log files were sent to me in pdf format, so the data analysis was fairly tedious, but I double and triple checked my work. I will try to dig up one of the pdf files if I can find it and post it.

I then found a blackjack program that I thought was fair based on the ups and downs of steady play and the reputation of the sprotsbook that I linked from. But after a while, there was a problem with connecting to the program for about 10 minutes or so. After I re-connected, I had a net loss of 60 bets in the next hour or so (approx 700 hands). I should expect to lose about 6. I never got the log files from this site, and I don't know how unusual it is to lose 60 bets out of 700, but I am absolutely convinced that I was not playing against the same program as before the connection issues.

I'm not saying that there are no fair blackjack programs out there. There probably are. But there are also cheating programs, and no way for the player to be sure. There is very little in the way of accountability or recourse out there. I even think that many site operators may not even know - or care - if the program is dealing fairly. They just know that it's a gravy train. The software providers know what the programs are doing, but they are obviously going to keep it to themselves. All the money that everyone gets is all based off a percentage of what the players bet. If the players don't lose a big enough percentage of what they bet, then there is not enough $$ to satisfy all the greed. That's what I believe and I think I have strong reason to believe it.

And btw, I have also linked to a black jack program at a poker site and played casually for a while to pass the time while folding hand after hand. I did this quite regularly and had losing sessions EVERY TIME before I wised up. I wanted to believe that the program was fair and that playing basic strategy perfectly with no bet variation would not lose me much money. But it just isn't true. I think the program may actually be rigged to reward bad play in certain ways (e.g. insurance). I don't know, but I do know that there are a lot of cheating programs out there. There is no doubt in my mind, and I'm open minded, intelligent, generally skeptical about things like this, and not easily convinced. The advice is sound: STAY AWAY FROM ONLINE BLACKJACK!
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  #20  
Old 12-21-2005, 12:20 PM
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

The names of the casinos would be helpful, too.
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