Instead of the continuation bet...

adsman · #1 12-23-2005, 02:29 PM

Villian was interesting. He was a maniac preflop, (76/35), but postflop he was actually fairly decent. My table image was good, I'd been showing down winners and folding a fair bit preflop, (crappy cards).

I find that against decent postflop players the continuation bet can be a bit obvious. Does anybody else do this? Standard? Boring? Merry Xmas as well to all you guys and gals.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (2.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises,

Duerig · #2 12-23-2005, 03:12 PM

Against a player that likes to make BIG LAYDOWNS I think this is ok. Especially if you've seen him fold and show his cards to the table, or he's table coaching etc.

#3 12-23-2005, 03:18 PM

Are you going to bet the river if he calls?

oxymoron · #4 12-23-2005, 03:23 PM

I like it against this player assuming you let go with any more action and/or check behind on the river.

Had a player with a similiar MO the other night but even worse. He was 90VPIP; 44PRF but his WtS was 38% and his W$SD was 50. Postflop wasn't great but it was better than his preflop and he was winning at the table I was at. Nice to have him on my right because I could 3bet and face the field with two cold PRF.

adsman · #5 12-23-2005, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are you going to bet the river if he calls?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless I hit a J or a T that's the last buck in the pot for me.

gehrig · #6 12-23-2005, 03:34 PM

you're getting 5.5-1 on a continuation bet
you're getting less than 2-1 on the turn raise

continuation bets are almost always good because you're always getting great odds

Guruman · #7 12-23-2005, 04:46 PM

did you love the fact that the board paired when you tried this, or did you hate it?

kidcolin · #8 12-23-2005, 04:57 PM

It makes no sense. You obviously would've bet a Q on the flop. He's folding air, he's looking you up with any pair.

callydrias · #9 12-23-2005, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you're getting 5.5-1 on a continuation bet
you're getting less than 2-1 on the turn raise

continuation bets are almost always good because you're always getting great odds

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, no. You don't get odds to bet. With the option to bet or check, you have infinite odds since you can take a card for free.

You can, however, give your opponent odds by betting. On the continuation bet, he get 6.5:1 to call and on the turn raise he gets 5.75:1 to call. The turn raise actually puts more pressure on him odds-wise, but all of this is meaningless if Villain was trying to checkraise the flop and is now crushing Hero.

#10 12-23-2005, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're getting 5.5-1 on a continuation bet
you're getting less than 2-1 on the turn raise

continuation bets are almost always good because you're always getting great odds

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, no. You don't get odds to bet. With the option to bet or check, you have infinite odds since you can take a card for free.

You can, however, give your opponent odds by betting. On the continuation bet, he get 6.5:1 to call and on the turn raise he gets 5.75:1 to call. The turn raise actually puts more pressure on him odds-wise, but all of this is meaningless if Villain was trying to checkraise the flop and is now crushing Hero.

[/ QUOTE ]

No....

It only has to be profitable a certain amount of times quantified by the odds laid to you on the bluff.

A profitable bluff, will need to work >20% of the time when you have to bet 1 dollar into a 4 dollar pot (EV =.80*-1 + .2*4)

Yessir?