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#1
11-06-2005, 11:05 AM
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Satellite Situation
Played the Aussie sat on paradise. Two spots gonna be awarded, plus two or three more get the leftover cash (noone knew exactly cos they never got to showing the payouts before the tourney ended - whatever happened to that Paradise slickness of old; they sell it to Stars or summin'..?).
Anyway, 2 seats awarded. 6 handed. Big stack (35k) is on my immediate left. I'm comfortable second stack (25k). Rest are about 10k or less and have been fairly tight, giving up their blinds often enough. Big stack and I have been keeping out of each others way and picking up a good no of blinds. Blinds 300/600/ante is something or other, I forget. I get 99 in CO and standard raise to 2k. Biggie folds, SB folds; BB then goes all in for his 9k total. If I lose I give up 2nd spot and have to swill about with the lower stacks a bit in 3rd spot, although not too critical. Straightforward call, or should I believe him since we're not even in any money spots yet and go back to relying on the safe route of chipping away at the blinds..? 
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#4
11-06-2005, 03:57 PM
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Re: Satellite Situation
I'll defer to Exit's judgement on this, but I have to think that this push says the villain has got a very nice hand, AQ+, TT+. You're a slight favorite against the former, and a big dog against the latter (duh). (Someone want to PokerStove this range if you agree?)
The problem is that if you lay it down, while you are in second, you are hardly assured of a seat. If one shorty busts another, you've got a ballgame on your hands. On the other hand if you call and win, a) he's gone and b) you're in great shape. Tough call, which I guess is why you posted it. If you think you can rebuild your stack by stealing, call. Even with 14k, you can steal from biggie if you need to.
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#6
11-06-2005, 04:01 PM
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Re: Satellite Situation
Pokerstove says 99 is 37% against that range.
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#7
11-06-2005, 04:11 PM
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Re: Satellite Situation
I don't think you can rule out a bluff here. If there are only two seats, the shorties are going to have to make a move sooner or later. It sounds like they've been getting their blinds raised frequently enough that they are going to put you on a fairly wide range. You're also the ideal stack to steal from: not large enough to call with impunity, but deep enough that you'll still be in good shape if you fold.
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#8
11-06-2005, 04:47 PM
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Little extra info
Little extra info...
The only hand I recall this player showing was a QJo he pushed with vs biggies steal a couple laps previously(when he was guaranteed to be called). He doubled up vs 64s. Dunno whether that makes it more likely he's messing here or will have tightened up. I'd also pushed him off a pot on the river a little while earlier, when it seemed his hand was weak. Fella seeemed like smart enuf player.
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#9
11-06-2005, 04:57 PM
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Re: Little extra info
That's enough to turn this into a call for me. Seems like his range is a lot wider than AQ+, TT+ if you've been bullying him and you've seen him play back at another big stack before.
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#10
11-06-2005, 10:02 PM
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Results
Just for completeness...
I turbo-called (as anyone who's played a number of tourneys with me will already have known). His JJ held up to win. We knocked out the 3 remaining little guys between us but I couldn't recover from being the smallest 3-handed - cos of the big target on my back and my blinds. Went out with AK to biggies AT. The $1.7k payoff isn't to be sniffed at but goddam I gotta win one of these Aussie seats soon... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]
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