Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-15-2003, 10:41 PM
Mikey Mikey is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 946
Default Is there any reason to believe you are ahead here

Just thinking about this situation I think makes this hand a possible check fold even though you came into it with a raise.

Let's say you raise with QQ, and are now 3 bet by a typical player. Usually a 3-bet by this type of typical player means to me the following hands.

AA, KK, AKs, AKo, QQ, JJ.
Hands like TT,99, he wouldn't 3-bet but he will call your raise with...not knowing that he is behind looking to flop either a T or 9.

The flop comes K J 4.

Is there any reason for you to believe that you are ahead here, the only thing.....that he can possibly have here...that you beat is TT, 99, AQo and would he 3-bet with these hands.

Would a bet and fold to a raise be in order on this flop?
Would a check and fold to bet be in order on this flop?

*Remeber you are are getting 3-bet by a typical player.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 02-16-2003, 02:37 AM
Dynasty Dynasty is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 4,044
Default Re: Is there any reason to believe you are ahead here

a 3-bet by this type of typical player means to me the following hands.

AA, KK, AKs, AKo, QQ, JJ.


Didn't you tell us the answer?

Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 02-16-2003, 08:25 AM
scalf scalf is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: south carolina, usa
Posts: 2,120
Default Re: Is there any reason to believe you are ahead here

[img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img] this post proves kj is the real premium hand...lol..gl [img]/forums/images/icons/shocked.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 02-16-2003, 09:09 AM
scalf scalf is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: south carolina, usa
Posts: 2,120
Default Re: Is there any reason to believe you are ahead here..ha,ha

[img]/forums/images/icons/blush.gif[/img] gotcha dyn..did not mention monte carlo..lol..gl [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img] [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 02-16-2003, 03:40 PM
Mike Gallo Mike Gallo is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 3,765
Default Wrong forum

Figure out the probability mathematically that you are beaten, given the cominations of hands that beat you.

You can answer your own question.

Besides, I think you would prefer to fold for any excuse. On a side note, most players will tend to alter their play after seeing how weak tight you play. A smart player will three bet you after you raise every time because they know you will fold.


Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 02-16-2003, 05:41 PM
PokerBabe(aka) PokerBabe(aka) is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Posts: 867
Default Re:Hands to 4 bet btf?

Babe was in the Bellagio 15-30 on Friday with Bob Morgan on my left and an unknown player on my right. Unknown guy open raises 3rd in and I 3 bet 99 in the c/o. Morgan and blinds fold and I am 4 bet by my opponent. Hmmmmm, I say....call. Flop is rags with 8 high. I'm bet into and I raise. Turn is 10. Ditto the flop sequence. River is a 3 pairing the board. Checked to me and I bet. My opponent mucks. What was my pal 4 betting btf? Obviously, Ace high something [img]/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif[/img] While many people would assume his 4 bet could only mean Q's or higher, this frisky devil did not even have a pair. [img]/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/forums/images/icons/cool.gif[/img] LGPG, Babe
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 02-17-2003, 12:34 AM
Tyler Durden Tyler Durden is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: DC area (Arlington, VA)
Posts: 1,351
Default Re:Hands to 4 bet btf?

Babe, isn't it often correct to cap with AKs?
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 02-17-2003, 02:15 PM
Clarkmeister Clarkmeister is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 4,247
Default Re:Hands to 4 bet btf?

The real question is this: Would you *ever* play AK the same way you just played your 99?
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 02-17-2003, 11:43 PM
PokerBabe(aka) PokerBabe(aka) is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Posts: 867
Default Re:Hands to 4 bet btf?

Would I ever play A,K like I play an overpair to the board? Silly Boy...tricks are for kids [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img] LGPG, Babe [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 02-17-2003, 11:44 PM
PokerBabe(aka) PokerBabe(aka) is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Posts: 867
Default Re:Hands to 4 bet btf?

Hi Tyler...I may be the only person on this forum who has not capped with A,K. [img]/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif[/img] LGPG, Babe [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:51 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.