Q on turn, likely has me beat, so hero...?

[StevieG]

Live at Flamingo last weekend, 2/4 limit. Table has been loose passive, but a raise preflop can shake some players.

I open raise with KJo in middle position, folded to the button, a calling station old lady who calls. Blinds come along.

Flop is J high with two diamonds. Checked to me, and the button (of course) calls, small blind drops, big blind calls.

Turn is a Q (not diamond) and the big blind bets out. Undercards to the QJ on the board do not help a straight. I know the old lady will call with straight draws and even payoff with busted draws on the river. I do not have a solid read on the big blind at this point, but I have not seen him raise anyone to this point, and I strongly believe he has the queen.

Hero....?

[mtdoak]

So you are getting 8-1 on your call, and you have midpair. Lets say your right 50% of the time here. Perhaps he has something like JT and doesn't want you getting your diamond draw for free. If you are behind, you have a few outs (3 kings, 2 jacks) to take back the pot, and a reasonable doubt whether you are ahead or behind. I'd call this down, even unimproved.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
...and I strongly believe he has the queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he flipped over Qx, you would have a very marginal fold. You have no more than 5 outs. If the button has a draw, you could have fewer. Assuming you got 2 more bets on the river (and button calls here) you would be getting 9-1 pre-rake; 8.25-1 post-rake.

That also assumes that you will fold unimproved on the river. If you plan to call the river, you need to actually be ahead a significant portion of the time. You "strongly" believe you are behind, so I think this is fold, with calling planning to fold unimproved a very close second.

If "strongly" means 50% and/or there is some chance he would check through a better hand on the river, then it is a call (with the river changed accordingly).