jfk ass conpiracy probility? using bayes theorum (plus a poll)

[brad]

ok. so guy is arrested.

they r pretty sure he is shooter.

he protests. before he can talk (other than to say he is a patsy), he is killed.

he is killed by a known gangster/cia (was he cia? not sure) anywayh someone with ties.

then the gangster at first says something dumb (i did it cause i loved president, wanted to soothe widow or something.) , and then after a while in prison hints theres a conspiracy.

ok, so given this parlay of events alone, what is the probability you would estimate that there was something going on here? eg, conspiracy.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Let's see, JFK shot. Guy arrested is perfect profile. Arrested guy gets killed before he goes to trial by 2nd guy who has terminal cancer and dies before he can reveal anything.

Hell. you can believe 95% of all conspiacy theories are bull hockey and still question this one.

[brad]

'Arrested guy gets killed before he goes to trial by 2nd guy who has terminal cancer and dies before he can reveal anything.'

oswald killed before anything could happen, arraignment or anything. before he could even get a lawyer or even be interrogated. (perhaps a total perfunctory preliminary interrogation). btw, i was gonna add that lots of the notes to the (totally superficial) interrogation and talks were destroyed.

ruby diagnosed only after he was in prison, wasnt he?

[brad]

ok say 95% oswald shooter. say 80% chance you think ruby would kill oswald for pretty much nothing.

so still 76% chance no conspiracy, but

24% chance of conspiracy.

on the other hand maybe yhou can just have oswald as killer as a given, (like getting AA twice), and just base it on 2nd probability.

still thats 20%.

i dont know.

[adios]

Since you're bringing this up. How about factoring in "Single Bullet" theory validity? Unless you,re Gerald Posner, timeline established by Zapruder film is evident and only time for 3 shots by one shooter (that bullet was "found" with little to no damage). It's a certainty one missed that means for one shooter: one bullet is accounted for with the head shot and one bullet accounted for all of the other wounds to Kennedy and Connally. Throw in the fact that government marksman in tests conducted during the Warren Commission investigation could never duplicate the shooting job attributed to Oswald (I won't mention the suspect accuracy of the rifle allegedly used). Throw in that all emergency room doctors at Parkland (who usually have experience with gun wounds) stated the throat wound was an entry wound on assassanation day (films of doctors in a press conferance on assassanation day have the doctors stating matter of factly that it was a throat wound and yes they changed their original conclusion in Warren Commission testimony) and I think you see the chances of a single assaassin being a low probabilty event. BTW the doctors that performed the autopsy missed the throat wound and the head doctor burned his original notes on the following day and created the report the next day including the throat wound which was done from his recollection.

I won't bore you with the fact that parafin tests indicated that Oswald had not fired a weapon that day and that Oswalds palm prints were not found on the weapon initially (they mysteriously showed up a week later on the rifle after a re-test after Oswald was dead). Also I won't bore you with the fact that no one has accounted for how Ruby got in the police station on Sunday with any reliable evidence. The Warren Commission stated that he walked in through the garage door opening but the policeman assigned to guard that entrance uncategorically denied that it could have happened that way. Also a film of the press briefings from the Dallas police station on the night of the assassanation shows Ruby at the briefings is probably insignificant.

[David Steele]

Another thing that bugs me:

Ask yourself (back in 1962)when was the last time you talked about Cuba or knew someone that had even been there.
Then think about:

Oswald: Cuban interest
Ruby: Cuban business owner
Kennedy: Cuba Attacker
( CIA: cut up in cuba by no support on attack )

There are more cuba links, I haven't looked at this for a while.

D.

[brad]

well i think cuba was a big focal point for setting up an 'off the shelf' intelligence apparatus, much like iran-contra, a quasi governmental type deal not subject to congressional oversight , that could 'get things done'.

also note mafia was involved in that.

[George Rice]

Didn't Congress conclude a number of years later that it was probably a conspiracy?

The mising brain suggests a lot.

Oswald didn't seem like the personality that could do that with a rifle from a distance. Close up maybe. But I think he would have missed all of his shots from that range. At least all but the first.

[jokerswild]

Let's see, the Dallas police department does a test on residue left by rifles on your face, and determines that you did not fire a rifle that day. The purported weapon is sent to the FBI lab and is clean of fingerprints. It is returned after the shooter is in the morgue and low and behold a palm print is found on the weapon.

Such great police work. The FBI doesn't know how to fingerprint apparently.

[brad]

house select comittee on assassinations concluded 'probably conspiracy' , around 1976 or 1978