A rare drawing hand for me

[jubeirm]

Two questions define this hand for me. How passive is he and how likely is your ace still live?

12 Outs:
Push, fold => 9.35x
Push, win => .45(1-x)48.5
Push, lose => .55(1-x)0.0
Break even => 21.8-12.4x = 21.2
x < 4.6% => +EV

15 Outs:
Push, fold => 9.35x
Push, win => .55(1-x)48.5
Push, lose => .45(1-x)0.0
Break even => 26.6-17.3x = 21.2
x < 31.1% => +EV

Doesn't look good to me. How aggresive is he? If you call and catch on the turn can you get another $7 from him, assuming you fold in you miss?

--Jubei

[fathertime]

hey Mikey--try it, you'll like it!

Against any underpair you are a fav. on the flop; add FE into the equation and you are ev+. I usually do A; but just because I remember after it is too late to try B. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[wdeadwyler]

I think villains hand range is 109+, jj, qq, 1010, 66, 55, 56, Diamond draw, and a few other hands. 101, 66, 55 are all unlikely (but possible) so a push isnt bad here.

[wyrd]

This is a hand I'm willing to go all-in with on the flop. Two overcards and the nut flush draw.

I count two overcards as 4 outs (Ace may be good, may not be. Same with the King). The flush draw is 9 outs. Gives us approximately 13 outs.

13 x 4 - 4 = ~48% to win by the river.

I push this every time all the time, for several reasons;

- If I'm seen folding to a raise often, people will continue to do it. I refuse to be pushed around.
- He may fold. Although I think it'd be rare, it's been known to happen when they're facing a decision for all of their money.
- Even if he calls with a set or AT/KT, you've still got a very good percentage to hit a flush and win.
- He may be raising with QQ or JJ, in which case you're a small favorite to win.

[jubeirm]

[ QUOTE ]

12 Outs:
Push, fold => 9.35x
Push, win => .45(1-x)48.5
Push, lose => .55(1-x)0.0
Break even => 21.8-12.4x = 21.2
x < 4.6% => +EV

15 Outs:
Push, fold => 9.35x
Push, win => .55(1-x)48.5
Push, lose => .45(1-x)0.0
Break even => 26.6-17.3x = 21.2
x < 31.1% => +EV


[/ QUOTE ]

This is just plain wrong. Please ignore. If villian always calls our push we only need to win 43% of the time to break even which we get by having 12 or 15 outs. We are only in trouble if both (unlikly?) A and K are not outs. But, I don't have time to re-work the numbers. Fast math is wrong math.

--Jubei

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
two lines:
a. push
b. call; all in on any turn. b is a TWP line and his reasons are:

sets are calling any flop bet but may pay you off even if you hit on the turn

you don't want to fold out a smaller flush draw

on the turn you have good equity against any marginal hand and so a push of a turn even if it is a blank for you will usually win you the hand.

if on the turn you read the guy as really strong, you can fold if he does not give you odds to call

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are saying call and check/raise all-in on any turn card? The one point I disagree with is getting smaller flush draws to fold. It seems they would be more likely to fold if we lead push the turn, but I agree with you if we check/raise the turn.

[fathertime]

Yes.

Check/raise all in oop, though in this hand you might not be deep enough to get him to fold a pair if you check raise all in if he pots the turn.

I push almost all the time with those stacks and that flop.
Calling and missing sucks when you have to fold the turn.

[Isura]

I pushed. He instacalled with AT. I didn't get help.

make a note, then 3bet stack him when he has TPTK and you have 2pair or better.