($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.

[xJMPx]

I had no reads on the villain. What’s your play on the river?

PartyPoker - $25 NL Texas - 10 players (Converter: PGC)

Starting Balances:
Button: $26.1
<font color="red">Hero: $25.65</font>
BB: $72
UTG: $27.1
UTG+1: $6.99
MP1: $23.55
MP2: $25
MP3: $21.27
LP1: $27.8
CO: $24.15

Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

PreFlop
MP2 posts BB
<font color="green">UTG Calls</font>, <font color="blue">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="blue">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="green">MP2 checks</font>, <font color="blue">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="blue">LP1 folds</font>, <font color="blue">CO folds</font>, <font color="blue">Button folds</font>
<font color="green">Hero Calls</font>, <font color="green">BB checks</font>

(4 players) FLOP: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $1 )
<font color="green">Hero checks</font>, <font color="green">BB checks</font>, <font color="green">UTG checks</font>, <font color="green">MP2 checks</font>

(4 players) TURN: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $1 )
<font color="red">Hero BETS ($1)</font>, <font color="blue">BB folds</font>, <font color="green">UTG Calls</font>, <font color="blue">MP2 folds</font>

(2 players) RIVER: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $3 )
<font color="red">Hero BETS ($2)</font>, <font color="red">UTG RAISES ($15)</font>
<font color="green">Hero ????</font>

[beavens]

instapush.

hero pushes...expecting to see 2 pair or worse...I think an overset is unlikely and if he had Q10, then that sucks.

[wdeadwyler]

Ugh, when I first saw this I thought fold. His range here is any set, 9J, and the nut str8. I want to discount KJ cuz he didnt bet the flop, and I think its unlikely he limps UTG with hands like 4j. So I think we can put him on, any set, q10, 9j. If that is his range fold is in order. I completley disagree this is insta push. I know this is 25nl, and you will see some bizarre crap here, and if he has done something like this before out of line, I call, but against an unknown, I just down think you are beating a hand range.

Edit: I think its most likely he has a slowplayed set or rivered str8, and very unlikely he has two pair.

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

I push. The hands that you lose to are 99, 44, QT, KK (if he is repulsive). So basically 3 hands. I credit this as a don't-call-me overbet and push (perhaps he has Ax clubs).

[Bco1/75]

I think there are only a few possibilities the UTG has that beats you...99,44,KK,QT,JJ. Unless, he is playing KK hoping for a re-raise You can eliminate KK. QT UTG is a low possibility. The only hand he makes this re-raise with that you beat is KJ or a Bluff. I am always warry of the the caller who wakes up on the river. If he has a KJ I think ha would have bet earlier than the river. I don't know if I am willing to make a 1.25:1 call with bottom set when the pot sized turn bet did not deter him.

I think you guys are giving villain far too much credit. This is 25NL...many players will limp with any 2 suited cards, this includes J9s and 24s, and yes, even J4 and other crap. In addition, since you didn't bet the flop, he may think you are weak and be raising big to scare you off with a minor part of the flop (or a missed draw), or he may really think is J is good.

[ajmargarine]

I don't think I'm folding that. QT or JJ seems to me the most likely hands that he has that beat you. But, you're going to see two pair there alot. I don't mind pushing because you're always looking for spots to get your stack in the middle, and they don't come around every hand. That being said, I'm still leaning toward a call. You see two pair/air there alot. But, I'd rather lose less here when I'm beat. I'm content with that-sized pot if my set is good given the action leading up to it.

[xJMPx]

I'll be honest, I haven't played a ring game in months because I mostly play Sit and Go's. But, I thought I would give them a try again to improve my postflop play.

After reading these comments, I think this was a fold.

The hands that have me beat are 99, KK, 44, JJ and QT.

The hands that I beat that he could reasonably have UTG are KJ, K9s?, J9 (note: I wouldn't play any of these myself), some pocket pairs, or a complete bluff.

So, both list are about the same length, but think the list of hands that beat me contain the more likely hands.

I was expecting to see QT, but I thought what the hell, if they called a pot sized bet for a gut shot I'll pay them off.

Based on pot odds, I have to be winning 42% of the time here. Is that likely?

[beavens]

one must also consider this IS PP 25NL and the play on average is atrocious at best.