Big draw OOP against a possible steal

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You have fold equity. You can clean up Jack outs. It'd be nice to fold JTo instead of letting it check through. Also, you're getting value when they call. You're also making it correct to call your draw on later streets if you pick up some loose calls here on the flop.

I'm not sure if any of this is coming out right, but I'm pretty sure betting is much better than checking.

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Now there's a quite a few very good players in this thread advocating leading this flop but I'm willing to go out on a limb and buck the trend.


Here's my reasoning.

Is it going to fold everyone on the flop....not likely.
Fold equity is about zero donking into four opponents.

Is the bet for value? Well you're hoping for two calls.
If you're going to get two calls, you could have c/r for value and have cost yourself money.

I think when you get callers in a pot this small, your J outs are going to be dead a good amount of the time.

I also think that you would be very lucky to get just two CALLS.
ie. In an unraised small pot you are much more likely to be up against Qx, Jx etc. If you are going to get two callers, one of those callers has to be MP1, MP2, MP3. Getting only 6.5:1 on a flop call, it's likely that the first caller is likely to have Qx more than any other holding. Now, what do YOU do with Qx on this flop when the SB donks into you....you punish the poor fool and try to get it HU...and if he doesn't play back, you own him.

I think if you are serious about putting any aggression into this flop, and generating any real fold equity, I'd put some serious consideration into c/ring ANY number of callers.

For me, the preferred line is to c/r >2 callers for value, c/c the turn.

Depending on villian, I'd c/r a LP bettor and semi bluff donk the turn.

I don't like leaving all my eggs in villian's basket, which is what donking this flop does.
By checking you get all the information you need to determine the best play. And if the worst thing that happens is this flop gets checked through, I'm a happy Hero.

*grunch*
check-raise turn, lead the river. If "weak" means he won't bet the turn again as a bluff or with a rather weak holding, I'd b/c. You have 15 outs here for your draws and your J could even be good. I don't know if that lifts you up over 50% equity but the 4 makes a quite connected board so I think it is the right time to semi-bluff a weak player.

Call.

[TheMainEvent]

I bet the turn, Villian called, River was a blank and went check-check, Villian had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I agree with leading the flop, and I think it actually does have a shot at taking down the pot since the flop may have missed the other players (2 small cards, 1 big card)

On the turn I think my best play is the c/r...My equity on average is probably above 40% since my pair outs will often be good, so I don't lose much by having an extra BB go in but I potentially gain a lot by winning it right there.

[midwestkc]

*grunching*

I check/call this turn. Had you been more aggressive on the flop, then I think you could bet out, but playing it that passively I feel induces you to keep playing passively. If you hit your flush on the river, and the CO had bet the turn, I may even go for the cr, since betting that out will scream "I finally hit my hand, WOOOHHOOOOO!" where a cr says the same thing, but you'll probably get a second bet out of him.

[McGahee]

If you think your J outs are dead, C/R'ing a LP bettor is about the worst thing you can do. It's not a hand you want to isolate with. We want callers - and the PFR is on our right - so bet the flop.

[TheMainEvent]

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If you think your J outs are dead, C/R'ing a LP bettor is about the worst thing you can do. It's not a hand you want to isolate with. We want callers - and the PFR is on our right - so bet the flop.

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There was no PFR

[McGahee]

I read bad. Still, bet the flop.

I don't know where this idea that a typical 1/2 player in MP is going to raise the flop with QJ came from either. Putting a limper on a hand w/out a read is pretty much useless.

[TheMainEvent]

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I read bad. Still, bet the flop.

I don't know where this idea that a typical 1/2 player in MP is going to raise the flop with QJ came from either. Putting a limper on a hand w/out a read is pretty much useless.

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Do you really think my J outs are usually dead though? I think they are live more often than they are dead. All villian did was limp and then bet acting last on the flop, his range is very wide hre.

[McGahee]

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Do you really think my J outs are usually dead though?

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I wouldn't say 'dead' but they're not clean enough to weigh very much. The parlay of CO having nothing, none of the other passive donks having a Q or J, or no overcards like an A or K falling on the river to outdraw you when you do hit a J - all of these things don't make your J outs good "more often than not". It doesn't really matter though - either way a flop C/R is worst than C/C, which is worse than B/C.
You're playing this hand for the flush.