Interesting 10/25 hand against a solid player.

[thabadguy]

Nice post AZK.
The only monster I can put you on here is 67d.
The smooth call on the flop by John is scary, hes done that against me a buncha times, I think he was going for a checkraise on the flop, but since it got bet and raised, he couldve very easily smooth called with a set/overpair not wanting to show a tremendous amount of strength.
When you flat call his turn bet, I am pretty sure John puts you on a draw, now the question is if he believe you have 67d on the river when you push, but getting the pot odds that he is, i think hell call with an overpair,set etc.
I mean your hand is either a monster or not very much, so i could see him looking you up with AT or similar.
I think if you raise/shove turn, you win this pot a lot more often against an overpair, than if you shove river.
This is from my experience playing John.

P.S Looking at the pf action, i like this even less, because he is less likely to have an overpair than a set.

[HoldEmKillah]

Jon is smart enough to know that you don't have clubs since the ten is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Your line looks more like a missed draw than anything else and he may in fact look you up with a set (or even tp/tk). He's very tricky so I wouldn't be surprised to see top set here, hoping you would raise the turn and then he's value betting the river.

I've seen him make some tough calls and take weird lines with the nuts before. Try this on someone else.

[creedofhubris]

AZK: in general, I hate bluffing with hands with showdown value.

I think the place to make a move in this hand, if you want to make a move, is the turn. (I don't consider the flop raise a move, that's a raise for value.)

Seems like he could on be the Ace high flush draw because he is cold calling your raise, he could also have a set but slowplaying a set like that is just not a play a solid player would make b/c of the ways he could lose. If he had a set he would have reraised on the flop. So I would have put him on a higher flush draw than you, and would have raised him on the turn, because I see his 800 bet as being weak hoping that he doesn't get raised so he can see the river card.

Hey I might be totally wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[mother_brain]

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I think he has big diamonds

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I think his river bet was a blocking bet hoping you had J9 or 56 or QJ of diamonds, something like that. Your line looks a lot like what you have. I don't think he is folding a better hand here.

[aggie]

I don’t normally do this, but I will give you the full explanation for the hand. BTW, this hand haunted me more than any other in over 30 hours of playing. I came as close as you can to calling, but you will see below as to why I did not.

I agree with AZK’s assessment of the table. In fact, I hated to see him arrive there because it was Vanessa to my immediate right and no other solid players. In fact, people were raising PF with ANY ace and any two face cards . . . seriously. And they were calling big re-raises with KJ, etc. It was a fantastically good table.

I had JJ UTG. I know that if I raise UTG, even up to 200, all it will do is make a giant pot – like four callers and me – and I will be in the worst position not knowing what my opponents could have. So, I limp in, and when it is raised to 75 I just call, knowing that re-raising to 400 may still very well produce three callers. Again, I do not want to play a 1200 pot on the flop with JJ UTG against people who will call with any overcards.

On the flop, I was looking for a check raise, but when AZK raised to 700, I don’t want to re-raise him and commit 2000 or my whole stack with an over pair against what I perceive to be a very tight opponent. I want to gain more information on the next street. At this time, I had only played with or remembered playing with AZK one time before and he was extremely tight. I know that he is a sound player and also know that he could have made the 700 bet with air, KNOWING the donks will not likely call that raise given that there was a 100 bet and one call only. So, I just call and see what he will do based on my knowledge of him as a player. Part of that knowledge came from the hand I had played with him earlier where I called him on the flop, checked the turn and made a relatively small value bet on the river when I had trip 8s and he had AA. So, I know he is aware of that hand that happened an hour or two earlier in the session.

So, I place a small bet on the turn (800), thinking that if he has a monster, he will now make a huge re-raise and if he has a draw, he will likely fold with only one card to come, and he may also fold thinking I am on a draw with the Ad, and so will fold if he does not have part of the board. Lastly, he knows I value bet him in the earlier hand. So, my 800 turn bet was defensive and for information, and for value if he has A, 10, and can not lay it down. I wanted to make it a strange amount to confuse him so that he would not know what I had and also freeze him into making a bad play – whether it was a bad fold, call, or failure to raise me.

On the river, I am nearly certain that he does not have clubs, but I also know him to be very tight and I have not seen him make one big move – ever. And, with the lineup I am used to or remember playing, I know few players capable of making a big all in move on a missed draw. You are one of them, Clint, and that is why I think so highly of your play. My solid, strong rule of thumb is that if I have seen a player play very tight, and he goes all in on the river, OVER THE TOP of my value bet, then a vast majority of the time, he is not making a move on me. Add to that that AZK saw me and value bet the river when I had a very big hand, then my value bet here of 1000 shows strength, and only a reckless player will go all in over the top on a bluff. I did not read AZK as reckless . . . quite the opposite.

When AZK went all in on his hand, I remembered that although tight, he raised PF and called PF raises with some tricky holdings. He could have had 6,7d; he could have had T 8d, and think that I would lay down a set by moving all in, he could have 3,4 of clubs, or 3,4 of any suit and thought that I would lay down a set. Since I can not beat any of these hands, and since I have not seen him make a move like this ever, and since I read him as being smart enough to remember that I value bet the river when I had trip 8s, I think he would not make a reckless move, and I lay down my hand. Believe me, I wanted to call, and I almost did, but when I put it all together, I did not go against all the information I had about him and our session together.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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The one scenario in which I think this river move makes sense is if John decided to play JJ this way, which while not inconceivable is still very improbable.

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Like I said, I think that JJ is the only hand John plays this way that lays down the river. AZK got very lucky that this was what he had-I think a vast majority of the time John has better than 1 pair here.

[flawless_victory]

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The one scenario in which I think this river move makes sense is if John decided to play JJ this way, which while not inconceivable is still very improbable.

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Like I said, I think that JJ is the only hand John plays this way that lays down the river. AZK got very lucky that this was what he had-I think a vast majority of the time John has better than 1 pair here.

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so this guy bets 1K into 3.7 w/ a set?
sounds like a world champ.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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The one scenario in which I think this river move makes sense is if John decided to play JJ this way, which while not inconceivable is still very improbable.

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Like I said, I think that JJ is the only hand John plays this way that lays down the river. AZK got very lucky that this was what he had-I think a vast majority of the time John has better than 1 pair here.

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so this guy bets 1K into 3.7 w/ a set?
sounds like a world champ.

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If 1K is all he thinks he can get out of a guy, it doesn't seem to be that bad of a bet. Think of all the posts that said he should just call because his hand has showdown value. Now think about what they would say if John had potted the river.

Granted, John would need to think AZK was pretty weak. But given the lack of a turn raise on a draw heavy board, it's not difficult to make this read-John only read AZK as strong when he came over the top of the rive rbet. So a 1K bet would not be that bad of a value bet w/a set or two pair (and who knows-it might even induce an all-in bluff by missed diamonds).
Sometimes you just bet what you think your opponent can call-we forget this online where reads are difficult and we just go for the bigger bet and hope for the best but with reads it is far more defensible to underbet the pot with monsters.

[flawless_victory]

i actually dont hate the way john played the hand, i just think the analysis in aggie's post was pretty lame.
he totally bashed AZK and gave him no credit, calling him reckless, etc. that BS about him being tight but playing some "wierd holdings" like 67s... WTF IS THAT? i thought he was supposed to be really good?

im sure ari is looking back on this hand thinking gee, i better try to be less reckless next time... acting on a read that this guy is weak and moving in, thats just stupid!
more like, next time im involved w/ some middle aged nit who limp/calls JJ UTG in a donked out game, then proceeds to make tiny underbets on an extremely draw heavy board of all unders hanging a neon light over his head reading I AM WEAK, id be happy to steal that 5K pot again! thx!
BTW/ what do you think ari should buy w/ the money? maybe i should make a poll...