Marginal EV situations for a lot of chips, and some theory discussion

[ansky451]

Ian J and I were talking on AIM last night, about chip accumulation. We were questioning, whether the best players truly can accumulate enough chips without a showdown, that they can pass up small edges for significant portions of their stack. There are also lots of subtleties to this, because of the decreasing marginal value of each additional chip you have, IE, is 70k chips instead of 60k chips, the same difference as 60k chips instead of 50k. So I brought up a hand from a 20 rebuy from about 2 weeks ago on pokerstars. We decided this was an excellent example, to discuss this theory.

There are 47 players left, and top 45 get paid. Making the money is of no concern to me, and I'm pretty sure I need to come close to final table to even break even (with all the rebuys).

Ian disagreed with both the first raise, and the call. I am a reckless gambler I guess.

I have no reads on the player who pushes, but I beleive I'm about 2-1 against his range, which is pretty much what I'm getting.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (8 handed) converter

SB (t25385)
BB (t78606)
Hero (t37563)
UTG+1 (t21165)
MP1 (t38680)
MP2 (t17068)
CO (t23389)
Button (t39120)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t6000</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t23289</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t17289.

So this is a pretty marginal EV situation. If I call and lose, I have 7 big blinds, and I'm bb next hand. If I fold, I have 15 big blinds. If I call and win, I have 32 big blinds, a big stack at just the right time. So there is more to calculating the cEV here, as each result gives me a totally different situation in the tournament-- desperate shortstack, midstack, or monster stack.

Discuss.

[durron597]

The first raise is really a function of table texture. For an answer to the second raise, I am not wise enough to answer, except for the following two points:

1) If you call and win here, no one will resteal from you without the goods anytime soon. Of course your table may break soon.

2) Matt Matros makes some really good points about marginal situations in this cardplayer article.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
Making the money is of no concern to me

[/ QUOTE ]

With 47 players left, this is a terrible way of thinking unless you are in a tournament that you shouldn't have been in the first place, or it's incredibly top heavy (less than $20 for 45th or something).

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Making the money is of no concern to me

[/ QUOTE ]

With 47 players left, this is a terrible way of thinking unless you are in a tournament that you shouldn't have been in the first place, or it's incredibly top heavy (less than $20 for 45th or something).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what he meant was he has no impetus to sacrifice from his total $EV simply to not bubble.

the calls not bad bc you are getting slightly less than 2-1. but the raise is bad. UTG is not where i want to play JT, and if i do, i want to see a flop.

[ansky451]

Justin, I obviously prefer 100 dollars to 0 dollars. Like Durron said, I would gladly sacrifice the 100 dollars for a better shot at 1st.

[Double Eagle]

The problem with opening UTG here is that you have odds to call a push by half the table and therefore have a good chance of getting 2/3 of your stack in as a significant dog. Once you make the raise I agree that calling is correct...

[Exitonly]

well opening UTG w/ JTs isn't quite standard, but i assume you'd do that vs the right table, but that said, that probably gives considerably more merit to this guys push.


i'm just waking up, so i dont feel like doign math, i'll come back to this later.

[Ben5505]

I was in a similar situation a couple nights ago. However I was in middle position with J9 spades. I called and he had KQ and I spiked a Jack on the flop. 2 weeks ago I would have never made this call but I have seen like 5 posts in the past 2 weeks saying that it doesnt matter if you think you are dominated if you are getting proper odds to call. The advice has been great.

[ansky451]

Well, yeah I'm aware how to calculate my equity.

The real question, is if taking marginally +EV, or even -cEV gamble here could be right.