Some interesting spots

[stlip]

Hand 2: It's precisely because I don't have a read that I would bet the turn. I would save the more subtle and sophisticated check for a time when I knew it was against a player that it made sense to use it on.

However, this could be the difference of me playing almost exclusively 1/2. There are just too many calling stations there to pass up a bet in these circumstances against an unknown.

[numeri]

[blind response]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, <font color="green">Hero...?</font>

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow - with three people who love their hand, we're really only taking this down with a set. We don't have immediate odds, so the question is: How much can we make up post-flop? Right now the pot is offering 10:4, but it probably will be 16:4 after MP3 and the Button call. Am I correct in saying we need to make up about 16 SB post-flop?

Against opponents who clearly love their hands, (AA-JJ likely) can we make this up? I think it's possible, but really close. I call, hoping for 7xy flop, with x and y all below 10!

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="green">Hero...?</font>

[/ QUOTE ]
Against an unknown, I bet here. It could easily be overcards, which might call here on the turn but won't after missing on the river. I certainly wouldn't think anything with a 3, and I also wouldn't think of an opponent betting the flop and then trying to c/r or c/c the turn with AA-TT or any other hand that beats us. (88 or 99)

OK, now to go see how poorly I did. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[i]EDIT: Screwed up the odds on the first one. We actually have 10:3, right? 2 from MP3, 3 from Button, and 4 from SB along with out 1 already in gives 10 and then we only need to call 3 more. It could be as good as 13:3 if everyone calls, (screwed that up even more) and we need about 8:1 or 24:3 so we need to make up 11 SB? Am I rounding the 8:1 too much? I'm not getting the same as Shill... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[stlip]

Hand 1: I think there is a problem with your calculations of the rationale for this cold call. Aren't you going to have an expensive second-best hand 25 percent of the time that you flop your set. How many BBs do you think you'll need to add in to your winning hands to cover those.

[itsmesteve]

Hand 1. I think I'd fold this one out of position against a cap. SB is likely to lead any flop, and you'll have to act next, not knowing what will follow making it hard to play a flop that hits you marginally. You're getting about 10: 3 or 3.3:1, which is less than 1/2 the odds of hitting a set ( if i recall correctly), so i'd dump it.

Hand 2. If your top pair was higher, I think I might check to induce a bluff here, but nines are pretty vulnerable, in 6max i'm willing to give an unknown some credit for defending his blind like this (in limited experience, mind you). I think you've got the best hand and I bet.

[MrWookie47]

Grunching.

I'll vote for fold the first, and bet the second. There's too much of a risk of being way behind a higher PP in the first hand, and you're only getting about 3.7:1 to hit your set. You'll probably get some hot action if you hit, but that's still a big deficit to make up.

It looks like villain 3bet with UI overcards in the second hand. Is he really the kind of guy who'd 3bet preflop, bet the flop, and then go for a turn check/raise? I've seen it, but against an unknown, I'd bet.

[MrWookie47]

I read your thoughts, but I still don't quite see eye to eye with you on the second hand. If you were the one with AA, do you actually think it's a good play to go for a turn check/raise when the board pairs and risk missing out on some value? Do you see this play often enough that it's worth altering the default line of the masses here against unknowns, or just against good/tricky players. How did you know to put him on an overpair and not AK so that you'd know to just call a river bet, and not raise it?

[McGahee]

Just for the record I grunch on all of these threads, I just don't like pointing it out all the time.

Am I missing something on Hand #2 or is that the world's easiest bet?
Hand #1 I would fold playing .5-1 but I don't know what "average aggression" is on a 2-4 table.

[SlantNGo]

1. Fold. If there were some limpers trapped between that increased the size of the pot, you could consider a call, but I muck this without second thought.

2. Bet and call a check/raise, re-evaluate on the river.

[VBM]

Hey Brad,

w/ Hand 1, assume you miss on a flop like:
T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

whats your flop plan? peel? for how many bets?

Hand 2:
excellent: this is a fantastic wa/wb scenario...

[Zoelef]

Grunching, highest played limit is $1/$2

1.) Fold. I figure I'm up against either at least two of: {AA-88, AK-KQ, AQ, AJ}. I'm not near PokerStove but I can't conceive cold-calling caps unless I have AA, KK, or AK.

2.) Bet/fold? I don't think SB would 3-bet (preflop) unless he has AA-99 or AK-AJ, but he's showing weakness HU, so I lean him towards having overcards instead of an overpair.